I snapped this Sun Dog late this afternoon. Unfortunately it was even brighter a few minutes before but I didn’t have my camera with me.
Sun Dog’s are formed by the refraction of the Sun’s rays by ice crystals in cirrus clouds. Usually 22 degrees (or more) from the Sun, Sun Dogs are usually seen when the Sun is low in the sky. Conditions were just right this afternoon with clouds (including cirrus) were streaming toward the eminent sunset. With the naked eye, it just looked like a small part of a rainbow. Sun Dogs are more rare for Tucson than colder spots, but obviously we have them!
I’m looking at the IR satellite loop this morning and the cut-off low over northern Mexico seems to be drifting south still. At least to my eye. Could be one reason why the National Weather Service is highlighting heavier snow for the mountains south of Tucson as opposed to the Catalina’s. Like I mentioned last night, this storm seems to be taking the southern route. Not as good for heavy snow for Mt. Lemmon and the Catalina’s. The good news is, the low is going to take it’s time leaving the area, so we have a chance to see bands of showers, thunderstorms and mountain snow moving across Tucson and vicinity through tonight.
El Nino is being blaming for shutting off our Monsoon early this past Summer. Perhaps now the Winter El Nino pattern is kicking in that would bring us more rain and mountain snow. That would make me very happy
Mostly cloudy today with scattered showers. High near 58. Tonight becoming partly cloudy and a low near 36. Mostly sunny on Tuesday with a high near 62.
The ‘vigorous’ upper level low has moved into northern Baja California and is expected to turn the corner and head east just south of the Mexican border. That’s a prime location for a major snow event for the mountains here, and so far that is being born out. We had a nice thunderstorm move through town earlier this evening. The temperature dropped to 47 degrees while it was raining. I can only imagine how much convective snow might have fallen on Mt. Lemmon and the nearby Rincons above say 6,000 feet.
It was great. I was in Target on Tanque Verde when the storm hit and I jogged to my car in the rain. That’s when I noticed the hail bouncing off of me mixed in with the rain. Not a lot of hail and it was small.
Back to the storm. I just watched an animation of the last 3 hours of infrared clouds (IR) and it looks to me like the storm is still sinking south. The danger would be that the storm goes too far south and busts our forecast! I hope not and the National Weather Service seems certain that we are on track, so I’m on board.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8
PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT...AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY THIS ADVISORY.
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 6000 FEET THIS EVENING WILL
LOWER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO NEAR 4000 FEET
BRIEFLY...THEN HOVER NEAR 4500 TO 5000 FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
4500 AND 5500 FEET...WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET.
Again, the apartment is at 2,600 feet, so I don’t anticipate any snow falling here, but the mountains are sure gonna look perty! 3 to 7 inches possible for Mt. Lemmon is less than I had hoped for, but I’ll wait and see what actually happens tonight and tomorrow. It still might be worth a trip up the hill on say Wednesday to take some pictures.
So, the actual forecast for Tucson is:
Mostly cloudy tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 43 with a 40% chance of measurable rain. Scattered showers on storms on Monday with a 40% chance of rain and a high near 59. Monday night, clearing and cold. Low around 37. Tuesday, Sunny near 60.
I love El Nino years in the Southwest. As the southern jet stream gets going, more storms take the southern route. That means more rain and snow for places like Tucson.
After a very pleasant (and a warmer than average) November, the Thanksgiving weekend is ending with a nice pattern change. A vigorous storm system is dropping in from the north. The expected track is south through Yuma today and then turning the corner just south of the border. As it tracks to the east just south of Tucson through Monday expect chilly temperatures with rain, and snow as low as 4,000 feet!
This morning we have an area of showers moving north through much of Tucson. The low is still well to our west and the low has been pulling up moisture from the south. Expect areas of showers to continue through the day today. Even though a cold front has already moved through we are still on the warm side of the storm. Today’s high should be near 60.
Tonight, the storm gets closer and the fun should really begin! Scattered showers this evening and overnight with temperatures falling and snow levels dropping. Could see snow sticking above 4,500 feet in places like: Sierra Vista, Tombstone, Sonoita and Bisbee. Snow could fall as low as 4,000 feet which means Oracle has a chance to see the snow fly, although it’s not expected to stick so much. Places like my apartment at 2,600 feet should see chilly rain.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch above 4,500 feet for Sunday night through Monday afternoon for the Upper Gila River Valley, Tucson Metro, Marana, Green Valley, Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties. Could see 2 to 7 inches of snow between 4,500 and 7,000 feet with 8 to 17 inches above 7,000 feet!
With southern Arizona in the favorable northern part of the storm, we should get the best part of the snow as it tracks on by. After the storm leaves we should stay on the chilly side. Highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s through much of next week. Should be a great week to head up to Mt. Lemmon and play in the snow! This won’t be enough to open up the ski area, but sledding, snowball fights and making snowmen will definitely be on the menu.
18 Telling lies about others
is as harmful as hitting them with an ax,
wounding them with a sword,
or shooting them with a sharp arrow.
I have a friend who walks the streets of NW Tucson. I don’t know too much about her, but we have visited a couple of times. I have even given her rides and bought her some groceries. You may have seen her too. She carries a parasol and is often walking on Oracle Road.
I always wondered what her story was. When I met her I discovered she is a Christian. As she walks, she looks for work cleaning or other work to help pay her rent. As we talked I discovered that people make fun of her and it’s hurtful to her. Although she doesn’t lead a “normal” life as most people understand it, she is a real person with real feelings. I imagine 99% of the folks who talk bad about her have never met her and have no idea what her life is like.
Today’s Proverb is a great reminder to me not to run people down. If I can’t say it to their face in love then it’s just not worth saying.
I’ve always loved the North Coast of San Diego. As a teenager my brother Chris and I would visit Mom in Mira Mesa. She would work near the coast and we would hit the beach! I remember swimming all day body surfing. The workout was incredible and it was just so fun!
My favorite places were Torrey Pines and Cardiff by the Sea, although Cardiff had some seaweed. That’ll freak you out a little bit when you are swimming along and some seaweed brushes your leg.
I went to visit my brother this past weekend. He is living in Oceanside which is even north of San Diego’s north coast. I got there early enough to make a bee-line to Torrey Pines to watch the sunset and roll some video. There is nothing like the smell of that salty air, especially when you haven’t been near the ocean in a few years. Here’s a picture, although it doesn’t quite do the sunset justice:
Chris and I had a great visit! The highlight was Sunday when he cooked bar-b-que and some of his friends came over. Quality people and great food. The Chargers even beat the Eagles.
On Monday morning when I left to come home to Tucson, I had to take the scenic route to the freeway. I paused at the Pier in Oceanside and again in Carlsbad for these pics. I can’t wait to visit again. Just need the money and the time all at the same time.
Keith Monday tells me this picture is 1999ish. That fits about right. This is the combined ABC28 and CBS13 (Texassize) weather team at the time. Good times!
Matt Hines, Matt Miller, Keith Monday, Ron Roberts, Mike Shaw and David Young. There are a few folks here I don’t remember their names. My apologies. I’m not good with names. I really need to work on that.
This song reminds me of my first TV job. I think it was 1986 or 1987. One of those. I was hired at KOBR-TV in Roswell, NM as a Master Control Operator. I started in 1986 after working two years in radio at KBIM-TV. Anyway, I would switch the evening shift which included Johnny Carson and Late Night with David Letterman. I would record musical acts and comedians that came on the shows. Somewhere (maybe) I have an old VHS tape with Bill Mahr’s first appearance on Carson. Also pre Seinfeld Show Seinfeld on Letterman. On Friday nights we aired music videos. I’m blanking on the name of the show, but I remember a lot of Bartles and Jaymes commercials! and, this video. I never saw Three Amigos, but I liked this. Still do.
Update: I Googled it. It was Friday Night Videos. Duh!
Three days in a row. Yes, it’s been hot for this time of year. I’m not positive, but I think that because time is traveling SO FAST for me these days, it seems like 91 is a cool Summer day. Weird, I know.
It’s 2:47 in the afternoon as I am typing. The indoor/outdoor thermometer here at the apartment in Oro Valley is reading 86 outside right now. The airport is reporting 91. That ties the record for the date and perhaps we’ll inch up a degree or three more. Here are some records for today’s date straight from the Tucson National Weather Service Forecast Discussion this morning:
THURSDAY NOV 5
TUCSON INTL APT 91 91 /2007
AJO 91 94 /2007
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 90 94 /1988
KITT PEAK 75 87 /1975
ORACLE 82 86 /1916
PICACHO PEAK 92 92 /2007
NOGALES 6N 86 88 /1980
BISBEE-DOUGLAS APT 85 85 /2007
SIERRA VISTA 84 86/ 1916
SAFFORD AG STATION 84 85/ 2007
The best news is we start cooling off tomorrow and through the weekend!