Tucson Weather – Calm Before the Storm

Tucson Weather: Sunny today with a high near 65.  Partly cloudy tonight with a low near 38.  Mostly sunny on Sunday with a high near 64.

Great news from the National Weather Service.  Our typical December weather is fixin’ ta give way to valley rain and “significant mountain snow” by Monday night and Tuesday!  By significant, the National Weather Service office in Tucson is estimating 6-12 inches between 6,000 and 7,000 feet with snow totals 12-18 inches possible above 7,000.  Great news indeed if it comes true.  This might be enough to jump start the ski season at Ski Valley on the top of Mt. Lemmon.  If that doesn’t, then there is a chance for more “significant mountain snow” Thursday/Friday time frame.

Of course I am hopeful that Mt. Lemmon can get the maximum from each storm.  If that is the case, we could be looking at over 3 feet of snow up there by next weekend!  Even if there is less than a third of that, there will be plenty of snow to sled on and build snowmen with.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch above 6,000 feet for much of southeastern Arizona for Monday night and Tuesday.  That’s on top of this morning’s Freeze Warning that expires at 9am.

So, what is happening?  You can read about it in this morning’s Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service.  (note:  the link will take you to the latest discussion, so if you click it this afternoon it will be an updated discussion.  If you click it next July you will read about heat and maybe Monsoon :-)

Currently, southeastern Arizona is on the western edge of a cold Canadian airmass.  Cold dry air is giving us freezing temperatures this morning.  The quiet weather this weekend will give way to a storm that is expected to drop south out of Canada along the California coast and into the Great Basin.  The trough of low pressure that forms will allow moisture, and an upper level low in the pacific, to be pulled into Arizona.  That should bring us this good chance of rain and mountain snow by Monday night.

After that, the jet stream becomes more “zonal” or east to west across Arizona.  That should bring us an unsettled weather week with another storm moving in perhaps as early as Thursday with more rain and snow!

I love El Nino Winters in the southwest.  Looks like the AccuWeather Winter forecast is on track.  At least so far!

December – Cold Start

It’s been a roller coaster ride temperature-wise here in Tucson and here at the apartment in Oro Valley.  May had a hot spell in the middle of the month and ended up warmer than normal.  Then June into July was cooler than normal.  October had a really unusual cold spell the third week of the month and now November has ended as the 3rd warmest on record.

Keeping with the pattern, December is starting out cool and getting colder.  Even though many places in and around Tucson experienced their first freeze in October, almost a month earlier than average, the Tucson International Airport has yet to freeze this season.  That is about to change.  Cold air from Canada, eh, is already invading the South Plains of Eastern New Mexico and Texas and some of that cold air is going to spread westward to Arizona.  Friday looks cold (by Tucson standards) despite full sunshine.  A north breeze will make the upper 50s feel even colder in the shade, although I guess if you can find a sunny, wind sheltered, spot it won’t be nearly as bad.

Friday night/Saturday morning will be the coldest so far this season.  Winds will die down after sunset and clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling.  It should be no problem for temps to fall from the 50s into the 20s to near 30… even at the Tucson International Airport.

Next weeks weather pattern looks good for our dry conditions.  Cool unsettled weather looks to be on the way with valley rain showers and mountain snows possible off and on much of the week.  I hope so.  I really like the rain in the desert and I really am ready to head up to Mt. Lemmon to see some snow!

Meanwhile, AccuWeather is highlighting the expanding December cold with snow expected from the Pacific Northwest to Arizona to Eastern New Mexico to Louisiana to the Great Lakes and East Coast

Dallas/Ft. Worth Snow!

It’s snowing in Dallas/Ft. Worth this morning.  I found this web cam image in Ft. Worth that shows snow sticking to the grass.  Looks like AccuWeather’s Winter forecast is coming true!

UPDATE 9:39 a.m. MST: KDFW in Dallas has a great slide show of this morning’s snow!