High Wind and Blizzard Warning!
Ski Valley on Mt. Lemmon
A robust storm, as it were, is barreling toward Arizona and the effects across the area promise to be dramatic. The headline is the strong wind. A strong southerly jet stream is driving this strong storm and the combination will translate into very strong winds in the lower elevations and even stronger winds higher up. Gusts to 55 mph by this afternoon will be likely in the Tucson area and gusts to near 70 mph are possible in the mountains. That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a HIGH WIND WARNING from 11 this morning until 2am Friday.
Tonight is when the main impact of the storm will be felt. Normally winds will decrease at night because you lose the mixing of the atmosphere leaving the strongest winds above your head. Tonight that may not be the case as scattered thunderstorms will have the capability of pulling some of those higher winds down to the surface. It’s possible that the high winds won’t decrease tonight at all.
Last time we had winds this strong there was a fatal pileup on Interstate 10 near Casa Grande. Thankfully we had some rain yesterday morning and again this morning. I’m hoping that the rain we’ve had combined with what is coming will be enough to keep the dust down. Still, caution should always be observed driving on the Interstate near those usual blowing dust areas. Also high profile vehicles may have difficulty with this wind. Definitely a two hands on the wheel kind of driving day. It’s also going to be possible to see some damage from these winds. Downed trees and stuff like that may occur in town.
Higher up, the winds will combine with a lot of snow. That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a BLIZZARD WARNING above 7,000 feet for tonight and tomorrow morning.
Initially, the snow level will be around 8,000 feet. Our last storm left a few inches of snow as low as 6,000 feet. The rain combined with some melting snow could result in some flooding in mountain streams and perhaps downstream. Otherwise, snow levels will drop below 7,000 tonight and 1 to 2 feet of new snow is possible in the mountains around Tucson combined with winds gusting as high as 70 mph. The White Mountains could get as much as 4 feet of snow from this storm!
As far as rain amounts in the lower elevations, we are expecting generally 3/4 of an inch to an inch and a half with this system. Some areas could exceed 2 inches if they get a thunderstorm or two. This is great news! We need the rain. The snow pack will help us out too.
Snow in Tucson?
Well, maybe in the Foothills and out towards Vail. After the cold front moves through tonight, temperatures will start to drop and so will the snow level. It’s possible that by early Saturday morning there may be some snow showers right down to the valley floor! Accumulating snow is expected above 4,000 feet, but it’s worth watching. This will be the back side of the storm so we aren’t talking about a whole lot of snow, but it’s possible that Oracle, Tombstone, Sierra Vista, Benson, and some other places could pick up a few inches. IF the snow level can manage to get down to the 2,500 foot level maybe we could finally see snow here at the apartment in Oro Valley. It’s not likely, but when the possibility gets this close, I start holding out hope.
Bottom line to all this? Enjoy the adventure but be careful out there!
Another much much weaker storm is headed our way early next week as the El Nino pattern is kicking in. El Nino dried out or Monsoon last Summer, let’s hope we can now make up for it in the remaining months of Winter into early Spring.
Tucson Weather – Blizzardo! Above 8,000 Feet
mmmm Blizzard
Tucson Weather: Cloudy and windy with a chance of an isolated shower or two this afternoon. High in the upper 50s. Rain tonight with winds gusting over 30 mph. Low in the upper 40s. Showers tomorrow morning with some clearing by afternoon. Windy and cooler. Winds gusting over 30 with a high in the low 50s.
This is one of those mornings where I am up early and my excitement for the incoming storm has me looking up the latest information and staying up! I’ll probably catch a nap before work.
I’m also up early enough to read in the National Weather Service forecast discussion about the Blizzard Warning being issued for the Catalina/Pinaleno and White Mountains for tonight above 8,000 feet before the warning actually comes out probably around 4:30 this morning.
The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for tonight through tomorrow morning above 6,000 feet. The added component of stronger winds above 8,000 feet has prompted the Blizzard Warning, which the weather service calls, “rare” around these parts.
As the storm gets closer more is known about the storm, The expected snowfall amounts have been tweaked a little. In the Catalina’s expecting about a foot of snow above 8,000 feet, 12-14 inches in the Pinaleno’s and perhaps over 18 inches in the White’s. The snow will be heavy at times with snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour. Combine that with 40-50 mph winds you have yourself a blizzard! (mmmm blizzard)
Down here in the valley, expecting between a half inch to an inch of rain mainly tonight and tomorrow. Winds could gust over 35 mph. Kinda reminds me of Oregon! Unfortunately, winds will be out of the southwest and west, so no driving rain against my north facing window like when I was a kid. I miss that sound.
