Global Warming Update

Winter Storm Watch Tomorrow Afternoon – Thursday AM

I Shot a Deer!

With my camera, but still.

I decided that today would be a great day to start a morning hike along the Linda Vista Loop, just a couple miles up from the apartment (actually, I decided yesterday was a great day to start, but since I didn’t, today was a great day to start).  It was warmer than it’s been thanks to a nice cloud cover, but the wind was kinda gusty.  I figured I would warm up once I got on the trail. Turns out I was right.   50 degrees is kinda refreshing when you are huffing and puffing.   (the trail has a 300 foot vertical climb and I started out at a brisk pace… plus I am not in my best shape yet)

I was probably a little past half way around the loop when I heard some crashing through the bushes.  Two White-tailed Deer bounding by about 50 yards in front of me!  They keep trucking until they were out of sight, but then I guess one doubled back.  He was maybe 75 yards in front of me just sorta posed.  He gave me enough time to zoom in with my camera and get off a couple of shots.  I grazed him on the first shot, but the other two were dead on!  I feel like God rewarded me for getting off my lazy backside and getting out in His creation!  It was a great way to start the day, for sure.

Click on the pics from this morning’s hike for larger versions.

Guaranteed White Christmas

Thanx to the internets!  There is a Christmas Blizzard brewing right now pretty much over Lubbock, Texas’ head.  The storm started as rain in California, but brought snow to some areas south of Tucson.  The storm sank further southward than originally expected and the forecast for Lubbock changed from rain and some snow to some rain and more snow!  Right now the Hub City is covered with about 6″ and it’s coming down sideways.  The 7am observation at LBB is:  “Snow, Freezing Fog, Blowing Snow and Windy, 26.”  I’m jealous, especially since I should have been there had I had a few extra $$s.  Thankfully, there is the internets.

This gathering storm is now plowing east.  The kids and grandkids north of Dallas are under a Winter Storm Warning and they could see rain changing to snow by this afternoon and maybe an inch or three just in time for Christmas!

Add this snow to what is already on the ground and a large chuck of the U.S. is fixin’ ta have a White Christmas.  If you aren’t, then just surf some web cams, put on some Bing Crosby and dare to dream!

Tucson Weather – Calm Before the Storm

Tucson Weather: Sunny today with a high near 65.  Partly cloudy tonight with a low near 38.  Mostly sunny on Sunday with a high near 64.

Great news from the National Weather Service.  Our typical December weather is fixin’ ta give way to valley rain and “significant mountain snow” by Monday night and Tuesday!  By significant, the National Weather Service office in Tucson is estimating 6-12 inches between 6,000 and 7,000 feet with snow totals 12-18 inches possible above 7,000.  Great news indeed if it comes true.  This might be enough to jump start the ski season at Ski Valley on the top of Mt. Lemmon.  If that doesn’t, then there is a chance for more “significant mountain snow” Thursday/Friday time frame.

Of course I am hopeful that Mt. Lemmon can get the maximum from each storm.  If that is the case, we could be looking at over 3 feet of snow up there by next weekend!  Even if there is less than a third of that, there will be plenty of snow to sled on and build snowmen with.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch above 6,000 feet for much of southeastern Arizona for Monday night and Tuesday.  That’s on top of this morning’s Freeze Warning that expires at 9am.

So, what is happening?  You can read about it in this morning’s Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service.  (note:  the link will take you to the latest discussion, so if you click it this afternoon it will be an updated discussion.  If you click it next July you will read about heat and maybe Monsoon :-)

Currently, southeastern Arizona is on the western edge of a cold Canadian airmass.  Cold dry air is giving us freezing temperatures this morning.  The quiet weather this weekend will give way to a storm that is expected to drop south out of Canada along the California coast and into the Great Basin.  The trough of low pressure that forms will allow moisture, and an upper level low in the pacific, to be pulled into Arizona.  That should bring us this good chance of rain and mountain snow by Monday night.

After that, the jet stream becomes more “zonal” or east to west across Arizona.  That should bring us an unsettled weather week with another storm moving in perhaps as early as Thursday with more rain and snow!

I love El Nino Winters in the southwest.  Looks like the AccuWeather Winter forecast is on track.  At least so far!

December – Cold Start

It’s been a roller coaster ride temperature-wise here in Tucson and here at the apartment in Oro Valley.  May had a hot spell in the middle of the month and ended up warmer than normal.  Then June into July was cooler than normal.  October had a really unusual cold spell the third week of the month and now November has ended as the 3rd warmest on record.

Keeping with the pattern, December is starting out cool and getting colder.  Even though many places in and around Tucson experienced their first freeze in October, almost a month earlier than average, the Tucson International Airport has yet to freeze this season.  That is about to change.  Cold air from Canada, eh, is already invading the South Plains of Eastern New Mexico and Texas and some of that cold air is going to spread westward to Arizona.  Friday looks cold (by Tucson standards) despite full sunshine.  A north breeze will make the upper 50s feel even colder in the shade, although I guess if you can find a sunny, wind sheltered, spot it won’t be nearly as bad.

Friday night/Saturday morning will be the coldest so far this season.  Winds will die down after sunset and clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling.  It should be no problem for temps to fall from the 50s into the 20s to near 30… even at the Tucson International Airport.

Next weeks weather pattern looks good for our dry conditions.  Cool unsettled weather looks to be on the way with valley rain showers and mountain snows possible off and on much of the week.  I hope so.  I really like the rain in the desert and I really am ready to head up to Mt. Lemmon to see some snow!

Meanwhile, AccuWeather is highlighting the expanding December cold with snow expected from the Pacific Northwest to Arizona to Eastern New Mexico to Louisiana to the Great Lakes and East Coast

Under Pressure

Southeast Arizona is under pressure this week.  Strong high pressure is building and that may mean a new record high our two for the area Tuesday and Wednesday.  Here are some numbers I stole right out of the Tucson National Weather Service’s Forecast Discussion:

                        TUE NOVEMBER 3       WED NOVEMBER 4
                      FORECAST  RCD/YEAR   FORECAST  RCD/YEAR
 TUCSON INTL APT         92      91/1931      91      91/2001
 AJO                     94      95/1924      93      95/1915
 ORGAN PIPE CACTUS       93      92/1997      92      92/1999
 KITT PEAK               73      73/1999      72      72/1997
 ORACLE                  80      86/1916      79      88/1916
 PICACHO PEAK            92      91/2001      91      93/2001
 NOGALES 6N              85      87/2005      84      87/2001
 BISBEE-DOUGLAS APT      83      85/2001      82      84/2007
 SIERRA VISTA            81      86/1916      80      87/1916
 SAFFORD AG STATION      83      86/1952      82      89/2001
 FORT THOMAS             82      84/1962      81      87/2001

So why so hot?  Blame it on high pressure and the sinking air.  With high pressure, the atmosphere is actually “thicker.”  Not thinker in density, but thicker in height.  That’s why it’s called a “dome” of high pressure.  And that air is sinking.  As air sinks from higher elevations, it gets squeezed by the weight of the air above.  As the air gets compressed, it warms.  Also, the sinking air makes it harder for clouds to form so you have clear nights and sunny days.  This far south the Sun can still be pretty strong, even in November.

Sometimes high pressure can be really cold.  Arctic highs form where there is little, or no sunshine in the Winter.  So.  Clear nights and no Sun make the air mass colder and colder and colder.  Arctic highs are both thicker in height AND density.  Your barometer under a strong Arctic high may approach the red line!  When an Arctic high moves south, it brings the severe cold of the arctic with it, slowly “modifying” (warming up) over time in the southern Sun.  Southeast Arizona usually doesn’t have to worry about Arctic highs moving in (unfortunately)…

Congratulations! It’s a Record

Today’s high in Tucson was 59.  That’s a new record cold high temperature for October 29th.  How’s it feel to be a part of history, Tucsonans!  And you thought the World Series was exciting….

Will it freeze by morning in Tucson?

I’m thinkin’ maybe :-)

I was disappointed this morning.  NO freezing temperatures at the apartment in Oro Valley.  No official freezing temperatures at the Tucson International airport.  That would have tied the record and all that.  Sports has it’s records, well so does weather!  Usually not recognized as quite as exciting, but exciting to us weather freaks just the same.

Where was I?  Yes.  Freezing by morning.  Well, we were close this morning.  37 is the lowest I saw on my little indoor/outdoor thermometer (and we know how accurate those are!)  Some of the Mesonet sites around town had some right at freezing temps this morning, so there is hope.  The National Weather Service is repeating their Freeze Warning from 1am – 9am for Chocise, Graham, Santa Cruz and Eastern Pinal and Eastern Pima Counties.

It’s a similar setup tonight as last night.  Cold air (for this time of year) is in place.  Winds are dying down.  Dewpoint is low (12 degrees).  Clear skies.  It’s 50 right now at 8:06pm, so were talking 18 degrees in 11 hours or so.  I’m sticking with my first answer.  Maybe….

How Cold was it This Morning?

I’ll need to update this post later today once the official lows from the area start coming in.  Looks like some in Metro Tucson did dip to freezing this morning.  The airport where the official thermometer is, stayed just above.  I did a screen capture of this map of  the National Weather Service observation sites in the area.  This is from 7:30 this morning:

Oro Valley was at 35 and the thermometer closest to my apartment was as well.  At the time my outdoor thermometer was reading 37.  The airport was at 36.  If you follow I-19 down to Sahaurita you can see a 32.  There is another one in the foothills.  Lots of 33 and 35 scattered around the area as well.  This is just a snapshot at 7:30, so it’s possible that some of these temps bottomed out a degree or two or three lower.

I was surprised to see 35 at Mt. Lemmon!  It may be a false reading.  Notice 20 at nearby Scout Camp and 19 at the top of the Rincons!

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