Winter Storm Watch Tomorrow Afternoon – Thursday AM

Guaranteed White Christmas

Thanx to the internets!  There is a Christmas Blizzard brewing right now pretty much over Lubbock, Texas’ head.  The storm started as rain in California, but brought snow to some areas south of Tucson.  The storm sank further southward than originally expected and the forecast for Lubbock changed from rain and some snow to some rain and more snow!  Right now the Hub City is covered with about 6″ and it’s coming down sideways.  The 7am observation at LBB is:  “Snow, Freezing Fog, Blowing Snow and Windy, 26.”  I’m jealous, especially since I should have been there had I had a few extra $$s.  Thankfully, there is the internets.

This gathering storm is now plowing east.  The kids and grandkids north of Dallas are under a Winter Storm Warning and they could see rain changing to snow by this afternoon and maybe an inch or three just in time for Christmas!

Add this snow to what is already on the ground and a large chuck of the U.S. is fixin’ ta have a White Christmas.  If you aren’t, then just surf some web cams, put on some Bing Crosby and dare to dream!

Tucson’s First “Official” Freeze

At least at the airport.  I would have mentioned this yesterday, but I was quite busy!  Anyway, the National Weather Service says the freeze happened yesterday morning at 6:30.  While this first freeze comes almost two weeks later than average, much of southeastern Arizona experienced a freeze this year nearly three weeks earlier than average when we had a cold snap at the end of October.

We have a Freeze Warning in effect for this morning until 9 for much of southeast Arizona.  Some places that haven’t frozen yet may have overnight and this morning.  That doesn’t appear to be the case here at my apartment.  I have an indoor/outdoor thermometer that is supposed to be accurate within two degrees and it is 30 feet off the ground on my third story deck.  Keeping all of those qualifiers in mind, I have yet to see freezing temperatures here at the apartment.  I brought the rubber tree plant inside last night just in case, but it’s only 38 out there right now after dipping to 37 last hour.  My rubber tree plant lives!  And my deck awaits it’s first freeze…

Tucson Weather – Calm Before the Storm

Tucson Weather: Sunny today with a high near 65.  Partly cloudy tonight with a low near 38.  Mostly sunny on Sunday with a high near 64.

Great news from the National Weather Service.  Our typical December weather is fixin’ ta give way to valley rain and “significant mountain snow” by Monday night and Tuesday!  By significant, the National Weather Service office in Tucson is estimating 6-12 inches between 6,000 and 7,000 feet with snow totals 12-18 inches possible above 7,000.  Great news indeed if it comes true.  This might be enough to jump start the ski season at Ski Valley on the top of Mt. Lemmon.  If that doesn’t, then there is a chance for more “significant mountain snow” Thursday/Friday time frame.

Of course I am hopeful that Mt. Lemmon can get the maximum from each storm.  If that is the case, we could be looking at over 3 feet of snow up there by next weekend!  Even if there is less than a third of that, there will be plenty of snow to sled on and build snowmen with.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch above 6,000 feet for much of southeastern Arizona for Monday night and Tuesday.  That’s on top of this morning’s Freeze Warning that expires at 9am.

So, what is happening?  You can read about it in this morning’s Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service.  (note:  the link will take you to the latest discussion, so if you click it this afternoon it will be an updated discussion.  If you click it next July you will read about heat and maybe Monsoon :-)

Currently, southeastern Arizona is on the western edge of a cold Canadian airmass.  Cold dry air is giving us freezing temperatures this morning.  The quiet weather this weekend will give way to a storm that is expected to drop south out of Canada along the California coast and into the Great Basin.  The trough of low pressure that forms will allow moisture, and an upper level low in the pacific, to be pulled into Arizona.  That should bring us this good chance of rain and mountain snow by Monday night.

After that, the jet stream becomes more “zonal” or east to west across Arizona.  That should bring us an unsettled weather week with another storm moving in perhaps as early as Thursday with more rain and snow!

I love El Nino Winters in the southwest.  Looks like the AccuWeather Winter forecast is on track.  At least so far!

December – Cold Start

It’s been a roller coaster ride temperature-wise here in Tucson and here at the apartment in Oro Valley.  May had a hot spell in the middle of the month and ended up warmer than normal.  Then June into July was cooler than normal.  October had a really unusual cold spell the third week of the month and now November has ended as the 3rd warmest on record.

Keeping with the pattern, December is starting out cool and getting colder.  Even though many places in and around Tucson experienced their first freeze in October, almost a month earlier than average, the Tucson International Airport has yet to freeze this season.  That is about to change.  Cold air from Canada, eh, is already invading the South Plains of Eastern New Mexico and Texas and some of that cold air is going to spread westward to Arizona.  Friday looks cold (by Tucson standards) despite full sunshine.  A north breeze will make the upper 50s feel even colder in the shade, although I guess if you can find a sunny, wind sheltered, spot it won’t be nearly as bad.

Friday night/Saturday morning will be the coldest so far this season.  Winds will die down after sunset and clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling.  It should be no problem for temps to fall from the 50s into the 20s to near 30… even at the Tucson International Airport.

Next weeks weather pattern looks good for our dry conditions.  Cool unsettled weather looks to be on the way with valley rain showers and mountain snows possible off and on much of the week.  I hope so.  I really like the rain in the desert and I really am ready to head up to Mt. Lemmon to see some snow!

Meanwhile, AccuWeather is highlighting the expanding December cold with snow expected from the Pacific Northwest to Arizona to Eastern New Mexico to Louisiana to the Great Lakes and East Coast

Will it freeze by morning in Tucson?

I’m thinkin’ maybe :-)

I was disappointed this morning.  NO freezing temperatures at the apartment in Oro Valley.  No official freezing temperatures at the Tucson International airport.  That would have tied the record and all that.  Sports has it’s records, well so does weather!  Usually not recognized as quite as exciting, but exciting to us weather freaks just the same.

Where was I?  Yes.  Freezing by morning.  Well, we were close this morning.  37 is the lowest I saw on my little indoor/outdoor thermometer (and we know how accurate those are!)  Some of the Mesonet sites around town had some right at freezing temps this morning, so there is hope.  The National Weather Service is repeating their Freeze Warning from 1am – 9am for Chocise, Graham, Santa Cruz and Eastern Pinal and Eastern Pima Counties.

It’s a similar setup tonight as last night.  Cold air (for this time of year) is in place.  Winds are dying down.  Dewpoint is low (12 degrees).  Clear skies.  It’s 50 right now at 8:06pm, so were talking 18 degrees in 11 hours or so.  I’m sticking with my first answer.  Maybe….

Tucson Weather: October 29, 2009

Forecast: Sunny but cool.  Today’s high only near 60.  Not as windy as yesterday with winds 5-15 mph.  Freeze Warning tonight with temperatures in Tucson near freezing (makes sense).  Colder in Cochise County and some of the outlying areas around town.

It’s 6:30am as I am writing this and my thermometer is reading 38.  How disappointing!  I’m like a kid on Christmas when it comes to snow.  Less so on a possible early freeze, but still I did anxiously check the thermometer first thing when I got up and the disappointment is real.

There is still hope!  The temperature is still falling.  Although I don’t think we’ll drop 6 degrees in the next hour.  Also, tomorrow morning should be just as cold or maybe colder.  To me the cold is invigorating!  And while I don’t like to be cold, I like to be in the cold.  Also… freezing temperatures kill those pesky bugs!

More on this morning’s temps a little later.