Lot’s going on with the weather! This is fun.
The ‘vigorous’ upper level low has moved into northern Baja California and is expected to turn the corner and head east just south of the Mexican border. That’s a prime location for a major snow event for the mountains here, and so far that is being born out. We had a nice thunderstorm move through town earlier this evening. The temperature dropped to 47 degrees while it was raining. I can only imagine how much convective snow might have fallen on Mt. Lemmon and the nearby Rincons above say 6,000 feet.
It was great. I was in Target on Tanque Verde when the storm hit and I jogged to my car in the rain. That’s when I noticed the hail bouncing off of me mixed in with the rain. Not a lot of hail and it was small.
Back to the storm. I just watched an animation of the last 3 hours of infrared clouds (IR) and it looks to me like the storm is still sinking south. The danger would be that the storm goes too far south and busts our forecast! I hope not and the National Weather Service seems certain that we are on track, so I’m on board.
The National Weather Service has also tweaked the Winter Storm Watch making it a Winter Storm Warning for some and a Winter Weather Advisory for others. The Winter Storm Warning includes Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties. The Winter Weather Advisory is for us folk in Eastern Pima County. Here’s an excerpt from the Winter Weather Advisory:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY THIS ADVISORY. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 6000 FEET THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO NEAR 4000 FEET BRIEFLY...THEN HOVER NEAR 4500 TO 5000 FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET...WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET.
Again, the apartment is at 2,600 feet, so I don’t anticipate any snow falling here, but the mountains are sure gonna look perty! 3 to 7 inches possible for Mt. Lemmon is less than I had hoped for, but I’ll wait and see what actually happens tonight and tomorrow. It still might be worth a trip up the hill on say Wednesday to take some pictures.
So, the actual forecast for Tucson is:
Mostly cloudy tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 43 with a 40% chance of measurable rain. Scattered showers on storms on Monday with a 40% chance of rain and a high near 59. Monday night, clearing and cold. Low around 37. Tuesday, Sunny near 60.