High Wind and Blizzard Warning!

A robust storm, as it were, is barreling toward Arizona and the effects across the area promise to be dramatic.  The headline is the strong wind.  A strong southerly jet stream is driving this strong storm and the combination will translate into very strong winds in the lower elevations and even stronger winds higher up.  Gusts to 55 mph by this afternoon will be likely in the Tucson area and gusts to near 70 mph are possible in the mountains.  That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a HIGH WIND WARNING  from 11 this morning until 2am Friday.

Tonight is when the main impact of the storm will be felt.  Normally winds will decrease at night because you lose the mixing of the atmosphere leaving the strongest winds above your head.  Tonight that may not be the case as scattered thunderstorms will have the capability of pulling some of those higher winds down to the surface.  It’s possible that the high winds won’t decrease tonight at all.

Last time we had winds this strong there was a fatal pileup on Interstate 10 near Casa Grande.  Thankfully we had some rain yesterday morning and again this morning.  I’m hoping that the rain we’ve had combined with what is coming will be enough to keep the dust down.  Still, caution should always be observed driving on the Interstate near those usual blowing dust areas.  Also high profile vehicles may have difficulty with this wind.  Definitely a two hands on the wheel kind of driving day.  It’s also going to be possible to see some damage from these winds.  Downed trees and stuff like that may occur in town.

Higher up, the winds will combine with a lot of snow.  That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a BLIZZARD WARNING above 7,000 feet for tonight and tomorrow morning.

Initially, the snow level will be around 8,000 feet.  Our last storm left a few inches of snow as low as 6,000 feet.  The rain combined with some melting snow could result in some flooding in mountain streams and perhaps downstream.  Otherwise, snow levels will drop below 7,000 tonight and 1 to 2 feet of new snow is possible in the mountains around Tucson combined with winds gusting as high as 70 mph.  The White Mountains could get as much as 4 feet of snow from this storm!

As far as rain amounts in the lower elevations, we are expecting generally 3/4 of an inch to an inch and a half with this system.  Some areas could exceed 2 inches if they get a thunderstorm or two.  This is great news!  We need the rain.  The snow pack will help us out too.

Snow in Tucson?

Well, maybe in the Foothills and out towards Vail.  After the cold front moves through tonight, temperatures will start to drop and so will the snow level.  It’s possible that by early Saturday morning there may be some snow showers right down to the valley floor!  Accumulating snow is expected above 4,000 feet, but it’s worth watching.  This will be the back side of the storm so we aren’t talking about a whole lot of snow, but it’s possible that Oracle, Tombstone, Sierra Vista, Benson, and some other places could pick up a few inches.  IF the snow level can manage to get down to the 2,500 foot level maybe we could finally see snow here at the apartment in Oro Valley.  It’s not likely, but when the possibility gets this close, I start holding out hope.

Bottom line to all this?  Enjoy the adventure but be careful out there!

Another much much weaker storm is headed our way early next week as the El Nino pattern is kicking in.  El Nino dried out or Monsoon last Summer, let’s hope we can now make up for it in the remaining months of Winter into early Spring.

Tucson Weather – Calm Before the Storm

Tucson Weather: Sunny today with a high near 65.  Partly cloudy tonight with a low near 38.  Mostly sunny on Sunday with a high near 64.

Great news from the National Weather Service.  Our typical December weather is fixin’ ta give way to valley rain and “significant mountain snow” by Monday night and Tuesday!  By significant, the National Weather Service office in Tucson is estimating 6-12 inches between 6,000 and 7,000 feet with snow totals 12-18 inches possible above 7,000.  Great news indeed if it comes true.  This might be enough to jump start the ski season at Ski Valley on the top of Mt. Lemmon.  If that doesn’t, then there is a chance for more “significant mountain snow” Thursday/Friday time frame.

Of course I am hopeful that Mt. Lemmon can get the maximum from each storm.  If that is the case, we could be looking at over 3 feet of snow up there by next weekend!  Even if there is less than a third of that, there will be plenty of snow to sled on and build snowmen with.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch above 6,000 feet for much of southeastern Arizona for Monday night and Tuesday.  That’s on top of this morning’s Freeze Warning that expires at 9am.

So, what is happening?  You can read about it in this morning’s Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service.  (note:  the link will take you to the latest discussion, so if you click it this afternoon it will be an updated discussion.  If you click it next July you will read about heat and maybe Monsoon :-)

Currently, southeastern Arizona is on the western edge of a cold Canadian airmass.  Cold dry air is giving us freezing temperatures this morning.  The quiet weather this weekend will give way to a storm that is expected to drop south out of Canada along the California coast and into the Great Basin.  The trough of low pressure that forms will allow moisture, and an upper level low in the pacific, to be pulled into Arizona.  That should bring us this good chance of rain and mountain snow by Monday night.

After that, the jet stream becomes more “zonal” or east to west across Arizona.  That should bring us an unsettled weather week with another storm moving in perhaps as early as Thursday with more rain and snow!

I love El Nino Winters in the southwest.  Looks like the AccuWeather Winter forecast is on track.  At least so far!

Tucson Weather, 11/30/09 – Southern Route

Winter Weather Advisory for Tucson vicinity above 4,500 feet has been canceled.

I’m looking at the IR satellite loop this morning and the cut-off low over northern Mexico seems to be drifting south still.  At least to my eye.  Could be one reason why the National Weather Service is highlighting heavier snow for the mountains south of Tucson as opposed to the Catalina’s.  Like I mentioned last night, this storm seems to be taking the southern route.  Not as good for heavy snow for Mt. Lemmon and the Catalina’s.  The good news is, the low is going to take it’s time leaving the area, so we have a chance to see bands of showers, thunderstorms and mountain snow moving across Tucson and vicinity through tonight.

El Nino is being blaming for shutting off our Monsoon early this past Summer.  Perhaps now the Winter El Nino pattern is kicking in that would bring us more rain and mountain snow.  That would make me very happy :-)

Tucson Forecast:

Mostly cloudy today with scattered showers.  High near 58.  Tonight becoming partly cloudy and a low near 36.  Mostly sunny on Tuesday with a high near 62.

Sunset – August 14, 2008

Shafted Sunset

Another AWESOME Sunset Arizona style. Heavy rain shaft to the west illuminated by a setting Sun. Too cool. As always, click on a pic for a 1024×768 version

I LOVE the Rain!

If you love it so much, why don’t you Marry it?”  Well maybe I will!

Soaked.  Kinda rare here in the desert, but not unheard of.  It POURED overnight with the promise of more rain this afternoon and evening.  The airport picked up a record for the date and it’s not even 7am yet!  Over an inch and a quarter.  Assuming we had more on this end of town (it looked like it on the radar) we are at about 4″ of rain since Saturday!

I’m supposed to drive to Yuma tonight to see my Dad and my sister and her kids who are visiting from Oregon.  Depending on the weather, I may wait until tomorrow morning.

In the meantime, just enjoy the coolness of the clouds and the rain.  We didn’t even get up to 90 yesterday!

Monsoon ‘08 Begins

AWESOME!  I finished with my haircut at SportsClips and saw how dark the sky was south, so I thought I’d go get a free car wash.  I was not disappointed!

Since I had been called in at Midnight because one of my employees was sick, I was off in the afternoon.  It was about 3:00 when I drove toward the storm.

I took Oracle and it was pretty light rain, but cool lightning ahead of me.  As I came down the hill toward River Road I noticed that the view of downtown was disappearing and the rain was picking up.  It was raining pretty good by the time I got to Prince.  I pressed southward and when I got to Grant it was a downpour!  My plan was to head over to First and back toward home.  As I turned East onto Grant I heard the hail ocassionally hitting the car.  The hail and rain were even more intense as I turned North onto 1st.  What FUN!  Visibility was low and folks were going slow.  I eventually drove back into light rain but the rain was pretty intense all the way to Wetmore.  The picture was taken a little after 3:00 around 1st and Prince.  I love the Monsoon!

Seasonably Hot

After a cool April and May (all Spring & Winter, really) we are realizing our seasonably hot season in mid June.  As you can see, the hottest part of the day is still a few hours a way and we are already at 106!  The “cool” thing is because of the lack of humidity, it “feels like” 105 :-)

The average high for today is 100, so 106 is pretty normal for this time of year.  Tomorrow is supposed to be hotter, so maybe we’ll hit that 110.  Too me it’s not terribly terribly hot until we start getting over 110.  Overall it’s been quite cool around here until lately.  I guess we couldn’t skip Summer this year.  Hopefully the thunderstorms will start on time two to three weeks from now.  The monsoon in Arizona is good times!

UPDATE:  We topped out at 106, but stayed 105 – 106 until almost 6pm.