Tucson Weather – Upgrade

Congratulations.  Our Winter Storm Watch above 6,000 feet for Monday night and Tuesday for much of Southeastern Arizona has now been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning above 6,000 feet for Monday night and Tuesday for much of Southeastern Arizona.

The National Weather Service says that “confidence is high” especially since the computer models are in such good agreement and have been for awhile on this approaching storm.  A storm system dropping in from the northwest is deepening a trough along the west coast.  That is is expected to bring in plenty of moisture and that means rain in the valleys and significant snow above 6,000 feet.  Another component of the storm will be the strong winds.  That means sideways rain and blowing snow where it’s snowing with reduced visibilities.  As they used to say on Hill Street Blues, be careful out there.  Snowfall amounts should be significant if the forecast verifies.  6-12″ expected between 6,000 and 7,000 feet.  12 to 18″ expected above 7,000 feet!

Skies are expected to clear quickly Tuesday afternoon/evening and then we get ready for another storm Thursday/Friday time frame.  Should be great on Mt. Lemmon!  The question will be, when can I get up there?  Between storms maybe.  That’ll be nice, but even a week from Monday could work.  I’ll post pictures if/when I make it up to play in the snow!

Tucson Weather – Calm Before the Storm

Tucson Weather: Sunny today with a high near 65.  Partly cloudy tonight with a low near 38.  Mostly sunny on Sunday with a high near 64.

Great news from the National Weather Service.  Our typical December weather is fixin’ ta give way to valley rain and “significant mountain snow” by Monday night and Tuesday!  By significant, the National Weather Service office in Tucson is estimating 6-12 inches between 6,000 and 7,000 feet with snow totals 12-18 inches possible above 7,000.  Great news indeed if it comes true.  This might be enough to jump start the ski season at Ski Valley on the top of Mt. Lemmon.  If that doesn’t, then there is a chance for more “significant mountain snow” Thursday/Friday time frame.

Of course I am hopeful that Mt. Lemmon can get the maximum from each storm.  If that is the case, we could be looking at over 3 feet of snow up there by next weekend!  Even if there is less than a third of that, there will be plenty of snow to sled on and build snowmen with.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch above 6,000 feet for much of southeastern Arizona for Monday night and Tuesday.  That’s on top of this morning’s Freeze Warning that expires at 9am.

So, what is happening?  You can read about it in this morning’s Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service.  (note:  the link will take you to the latest discussion, so if you click it this afternoon it will be an updated discussion.  If you click it next July you will read about heat and maybe Monsoon :-)

Currently, southeastern Arizona is on the western edge of a cold Canadian airmass.  Cold dry air is giving us freezing temperatures this morning.  The quiet weather this weekend will give way to a storm that is expected to drop south out of Canada along the California coast and into the Great Basin.  The trough of low pressure that forms will allow moisture, and an upper level low in the pacific, to be pulled into Arizona.  That should bring us this good chance of rain and mountain snow by Monday night.

After that, the jet stream becomes more “zonal” or east to west across Arizona.  That should bring us an unsettled weather week with another storm moving in perhaps as early as Thursday with more rain and snow!

I love El Nino Winters in the southwest.  Looks like the AccuWeather Winter forecast is on track.  At least so far!

December – Cold Start

It’s been a roller coaster ride temperature-wise here in Tucson and here at the apartment in Oro Valley.  May had a hot spell in the middle of the month and ended up warmer than normal.  Then June into July was cooler than normal.  October had a really unusual cold spell the third week of the month and now November has ended as the 3rd warmest on record.

Keeping with the pattern, December is starting out cool and getting colder.  Even though many places in and around Tucson experienced their first freeze in October, almost a month earlier than average, the Tucson International Airport has yet to freeze this season.  That is about to change.  Cold air from Canada, eh, is already invading the South Plains of Eastern New Mexico and Texas and some of that cold air is going to spread westward to Arizona.  Friday looks cold (by Tucson standards) despite full sunshine.  A north breeze will make the upper 50s feel even colder in the shade, although I guess if you can find a sunny, wind sheltered, spot it won’t be nearly as bad.

Friday night/Saturday morning will be the coldest so far this season.  Winds will die down after sunset and clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling.  It should be no problem for temps to fall from the 50s into the 20s to near 30… even at the Tucson International Airport.

Next weeks weather pattern looks good for our dry conditions.  Cool unsettled weather looks to be on the way with valley rain showers and mountain snows possible off and on much of the week.  I hope so.  I really like the rain in the desert and I really am ready to head up to Mt. Lemmon to see some snow!

Meanwhile, AccuWeather is highlighting the expanding December cold with snow expected from the Pacific Northwest to Arizona to Eastern New Mexico to Louisiana to the Great Lakes and East Coast

New Mexico/Texas Storm Now…

The storm that left 5″ of snow on Mt. Lemmon and even a dusting on Tombstone has now moved into Far West Texas.  El Paso has had a couple of inches of snow from the storm as the vigorous upper level low combines with more moisture and some cooler air.  The Sun isn’t quite up yet in El Paso, but here are some web cams to check this morning before it all melts.  The roads look wet, so the snow has marginal sticking power in El Paso even though they do have a Winter Storm Warning.

Meanwhile in Roswell, NM (my old stomping grounds) it’s snowing right now with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect.  They are expecting “Generally 2-4″ of snow..”  Here’s a nice web cam on the Pecos River in Carlsbad, NM with which to watch the snow coming down.

Lubbock, where I also lived for years, is expecting 1-3″ of snow with some sleet and rain mixed in today.  Yes, I am jealous!

The good news is (for snow lovers like me) El Nino Winters are generally cooler and snowier for places like Roswell, Lubbock, El Paso and even Tucson.  We’re just getting warmed up… er started.

Update 6:24 a.m. MST: The El Paso cams I have linked are somewhat of a bust with images from last night that aren’t updating.  However, the Carlsbad “Brad Light’s Cam” camera is GREAT!  Here’s a shot I just captured.  Snow in Carlsbad!

Update 6:42 a.m. MST: Here is a link to webcams in Midland, Odessa, Notrees and Hobbs.  Snow in Hobbs and a dusting in Notrees.  Also, a friend of mine on Facebook, Jessica Armstrong, says it has started to snow in Lubbock near 50th and Quaker.

Update 8:07 a.m. MST:  Snow sticking in Lubbock.  Courtesy KCBD First Alert DigitalTower Cam:

Tucson Weather, 11/30/09 – Southern Route

Winter Weather Advisory for Tucson vicinity above 4,500 feet has been canceled.

I’m looking at the IR satellite loop this morning and the cut-off low over northern Mexico seems to be drifting south still.  At least to my eye.  Could be one reason why the National Weather Service is highlighting heavier snow for the mountains south of Tucson as opposed to the Catalina’s.  Like I mentioned last night, this storm seems to be taking the southern route.  Not as good for heavy snow for Mt. Lemmon and the Catalina’s.  The good news is, the low is going to take it’s time leaving the area, so we have a chance to see bands of showers, thunderstorms and mountain snow moving across Tucson and vicinity through tonight.

El Nino is being blaming for shutting off our Monsoon early this past Summer.  Perhaps now the Winter El Nino pattern is kicking in that would bring us more rain and mountain snow.  That would make me very happy :-)

Tucson Forecast:

Mostly cloudy today with scattered showers.  High near 58.  Tonight becoming partly cloudy and a low near 36.  Mostly sunny on Tuesday with a high near 62.

Tucson Weather, 11/29/09 – Winter Weather Advisory

Lot’s going on with the weather!  This is fun.

The ‘vigorous’ upper level low has moved into northern Baja California and is expected to turn the corner and head east just south of the Mexican border.  That’s a prime location for a major snow event for the mountains here, and so far that is being born out.  We had a nice thunderstorm move through town earlier this evening.  The temperature dropped to 47 degrees while it was raining.  I can only imagine how much convective snow might have fallen on Mt. Lemmon and the nearby Rincons above say 6,000 feet.

It was great. I was in Target on Tanque Verde when the storm hit and I jogged to my car in the rain.  That’s when I noticed the hail bouncing off of me mixed in with the rain.  Not a lot of hail and it was small.

Back to the storm.  I just watched an animation of the last 3 hours of infrared clouds (IR) and it looks to me like the storm is still sinking south.  The danger would be that the storm goes too far south and busts our forecast!  I hope not and the National Weather Service seems certain that we are on track, so I’m on board.

The National Weather Service has also tweaked the Winter Storm Watch making it a Winter Storm Warning for some and a Winter Weather Advisory for others.  The Winter Storm Warning includes Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties.  The Winter Weather Advisory is for us folk in Eastern Pima County.  Here’s an excerpt from the Winter Weather Advisory:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8
PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT...AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY THIS ADVISORY.

A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 6000 FEET THIS EVENING WILL
LOWER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO NEAR 4000 FEET
BRIEFLY...THEN HOVER NEAR 4500 TO 5000 FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
4500 AND 5500 FEET...WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET.

Again, the apartment is at 2,600 feet, so I don’t anticipate any snow falling here, but the mountains are sure gonna look perty!  3 to 7 inches possible for Mt. Lemmon is less than I had hoped for, but I’ll wait and see what actually happens tonight and tomorrow.  It still might be worth a trip up the hill on say Wednesday to take some pictures.

So, the actual forecast for Tucson is:

Mostly cloudy tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Low 43 with a 40% chance of measurable rain.  Scattered showers on storms on Monday with a 40% chance of rain and a high near 59.  Monday night, clearing and cold.  Low around 37.  Tuesday, Sunny near 60.

How Cold was it This Morning?

I’ll need to update this post later today once the official lows from the area start coming in.  Looks like some in Metro Tucson did dip to freezing this morning.  The airport where the official thermometer is, stayed just above.  I did a screen capture of this map of  the National Weather Service observation sites in the area.  This is from 7:30 this morning:

Oro Valley was at 35 and the thermometer closest to my apartment was as well.  At the time my outdoor thermometer was reading 37.  The airport was at 36.  If you follow I-19 down to Sahaurita you can see a 32.  There is another one in the foothills.  Lots of 33 and 35 scattered around the area as well.  This is just a snapshot at 7:30, so it’s possible that some of these temps bottomed out a degree or two or three lower.

I was surprised to see 35 at Mt. Lemmon!  It may be a false reading.  Notice 20 at nearby Scout Camp and 19 at the top of the Rincons!

Tucson Weather: October 28, 2009

Tucson Weather: Becoming partly cloudy with a few showers possible.  Windy and cool with temperatures staying in the 50s for the most part.  Winds gusting to near 30 at times.  Freeze Warning tomorrow morning.  Skies becoming mostly clear tonight and winds dying down.  Lows in the low to mid 30s.

A strong cold front blew through last night and hit the apartment right at Midnight.  There were a few showers with it too.  It hadn’t rained in so long, I almost didn’t recognize the sound!  I think there was hail in it the way it was hitting the window.  Unfortunately, it wasn’t much rain.  I don’t think it was enough to even cover the ground.  At least not here.

The most exciting part of this storm is it’s strength.  The National Weather Service has been marveling for a few days now about how strong a storm this is for late October.  The Meteorologists have been saying this is more like a late November/early December storm!  Yesterday the talk was, would Tucson break the record for the coldest high on record for October 28th.  Doesn’t look like it.  The record is 61, I think.  Well, it was 68 here at the apartment when the front hit at Midnight so even though we will probably stay in the 50s today, the high at Midnight was too high.

The other cool news is this storm is bringing some mountain snow.  But, since it’s a dry system, not much.  Probably just a dusting to and inch or two on nearby Mt. Lemmon.  The White Mountains to the north-northeast may get a bit more.

The next big news is the cold air moving in.  The National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning for tomorrow morning.  Widespread freezing temperatures are expected in the morning for Cochise and Santa Cruz and Graham Counties for sure.  Easter Pinal and Eastern Pima too, although temps around Tucson Metro will be close.  Low to mid 30s for most of town, so your mileage may vary.  Outlying areas, low cold drainage areas like washes, and the Foothills have the best chance for a freeze in the morning.  This is pretty early for a first freeze for Tucson.  The average is November 24th!  The earliest on record is October 16, 1899.  Here are the numbers if you want to look at them in detail for yourself.

Tomorrow looks like another chilly day and Friday morning near freezing again.  Then a fast warm up back into the 80s by early next week.

It’s COLD!

Not everywhere, of course.  Here in Tucson it’s been near normal with some days above and some below.  Today should be about 70 which is a good 6 or 7 degrees above normal.  However, it’s been cold and snowy enough so far this Winter that nearby Mt. Lemmon is having another good ski season!  With last weekends storm they say they now have enough snow at Ski Valley to last until Spring.

In other parts of the country it has been extreme snow.  So much snow that avalanches are causing problems for some ski areas and even some deaths.  Here is that story.

On the “Glabal Warming” front, it’s quite the opposite.  Alaska, known for it’s cold in the Winter is having an unusual bitter cold arctic outbreak.  Here’s an article from AP on Yahoo! News.

Alaskans are accustomed to subzero temperatures but the prolonged conditions have folks wondering what’s going on with winter less than a month old.

How cold is it?

Johnson lives in Stevens Village, where residents have endured close to two weeks of temperatures pushing 60 below zero.

In Anchorage, Alaska’s largest city, residents are used to lows of about 10-degree temperatures in January — not 19 below zero, which is what folks awoke to Wednesday morning.

Temperatures finally settled to about 10 below at midday, but that was cold enough to cancel races in the U.S. Cross Country Ski Championships.

More evidence that its the Sun that causing all of this cooling.  As it continues to be less active, we on Earth continue to cool.  This article from the Daily Mail in England outlines how scientists are concerned about less solar wind.  The solar wind protects the inner solar system from Cosmic Rays.  Weaker solar wind means more danger for astronauts.  It also makes sense that a quieter Sun means less solar radiation.  It follows that that would cause the Earth to cool!

I’m still hoping that folks would see that light. I believe many of them are. We need to contact our representatives in Washington and stop the plans to tax CO2. What a waste of money, especially when the country is going broke! We really need to be developing our energy resources yesterday so that we can keep warm in the chilly decades to come!

Astronauts returning to the moon could be threatened by cosmic rays as a result of the sun becoming less active, scientists have said.

The sun’s ability to shield the solar system from harmful radiation could falter in the early 2020s, research from the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology claimed.

It’s cold in space and it’s getting colder down here too.

Camping!!!

What a great time!  I went camping yesterday until this morning.  A couple of friends invited me up to Mt. Lemmon, Mt. Bigelow to be more specific.  It’s a little above 8,000 feet so it was quite a bit cooler than the desert floor here in Tucson.

We had a camp fire.  Got rained on a bit from the edge of a thunderstorm.  Had smores and hot dogs and bratworst.  I slept outside next to the fire and the stars were amazing!  I saw three shooting stars, one of which was a slow burner.  The ground wasn’t that hard, although I did wake up quite a few times because it wasn’t exactly as soft as my bed (which is too hard too, but that’s another story).  I was surprised how much the thin pad helped.

Since I slept outside I was the first one up.  The coals were still hot enough from the fire from the night before I just gathered up some pine needles and twigs and blew on the coals to get the fires started again.  It was a cool start to the day.  In the 50′s up there as opposed to nearly 80 down here.  Nothing like a couple of marshmellows, a hot dog and a couple of cookies for breakfast!

It’s the first time I’ve camped in a couple of years and the first time I slept outside in a couple of decades!  (I’m pretty sure)  I left this morning in time to get to church this morning.

I had such a good time.  I was dirty and smelled like smoke.   Now, I know a new place to camp.  It’s only 45 miles from the apartment, 15 degrees cooler, and it’s a pine forest.   Hopefully I can get back up there soon!

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