Tucson Weather, 11/30/09 – Southern Route
2007 Snowman waits for rebirth
Winter Weather Advisory for Tucson vicinity above 4,500 feet has been canceled.
I’m looking at the IR satellite loop this morning and the cut-off low over northern Mexico seems to be drifting south still. At least to my eye. Could be one reason why the National Weather Service is highlighting heavier snow for the mountains south of Tucson as opposed to the Catalina’s. Like I mentioned last night, this storm seems to be taking the southern route. Not as good for heavy snow for Mt. Lemmon and the Catalina’s. The good news is, the low is going to take it’s time leaving the area, so we have a chance to see bands of showers, thunderstorms and mountain snow moving across Tucson and vicinity through tonight.
El Nino is being blaming for shutting off our Monsoon early this past Summer. Perhaps now the Winter El Nino pattern is kicking in that would bring us more rain and mountain snow. That would make me very happy :-)
Tucson Forecast:
Mostly cloudy today with scattered showers. High near 58. Tonight becoming partly cloudy and a low near 36. Mostly sunny on Tuesday with a high near 62.
Tucson Weather, 11/29/09 – Winter Weather Advisory
Snow Rocks
Lot’s going on with the weather! This is fun.
The ‘vigorous’ upper level low has moved into northern Baja California and is expected to turn the corner and head east just south of the Mexican border. That’s a prime location for a major snow event for the mountains here, and so far that is being born out. We had a nice thunderstorm move through town earlier this evening. The temperature dropped to 47 degrees while it was raining. I can only imagine how much convective snow might have fallen on Mt. Lemmon and the nearby Rincons above say 6,000 feet.
It was great. I was in Target on Tanque Verde when the storm hit and I jogged to my car in the rain. That’s when I noticed the hail bouncing off of me mixed in with the rain. Not a lot of hail and it was small.
Back to the storm. I just watched an animation of the last 3 hours of infrared clouds (IR) and it looks to me like the storm is still sinking south. The danger would be that the storm goes too far south and busts our forecast! I hope not and the National Weather Service seems certain that we are on track, so I’m on board.
The National Weather Service has also tweaked the Winter Storm Watch making it a Winter Storm Warning for some and a Winter Weather Advisory for others. The Winter Storm Warning includes Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties. The Winter Weather Advisory is for us folk in Eastern Pima County. Here’s an excerpt from the Winter Weather Advisory:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY THIS ADVISORY. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SNOW LEVEL NEAR 6000 FEET THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO NEAR 4000 FEET BRIEFLY...THEN HOVER NEAR 4500 TO 5000 FEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET...WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET.
Again, the apartment is at 2,600 feet, so I don’t anticipate any snow falling here, but the mountains are sure gonna look perty! 3 to 7 inches possible for Mt. Lemmon is less than I had hoped for, but I’ll wait and see what actually happens tonight and tomorrow. It still might be worth a trip up the hill on say Wednesday to take some pictures.
So, the actual forecast for Tucson is:
Mostly cloudy tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 43 with a 40% chance of measurable rain. Scattered showers on storms on Monday with a 40% chance of rain and a high near 59. Monday night, clearing and cold. Low around 37. Tuesday, Sunny near 60.
Another Tucson Record!
Three days in a row. Yes, it’s been hot for this time of year. I’m not positive, but I think that because time is traveling SO FAST for me these days, it seems like 91 is a cool Summer day. Weird, I know.
It’s 2:47 in the afternoon as I am typing. The indoor/outdoor thermometer here at the apartment in Oro Valley is reading 86 outside right now. The airport is reporting 91. That ties the record for the date and perhaps we’ll inch up a degree or three more. Here are some records for today’s date straight from the Tucson National Weather Service Forecast Discussion this morning:
THURSDAY NOV 5
FORECAST RECORD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL APT 91 91 /2007
AJO 91 94 /2007
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 90 94 /1988
KITT PEAK 75 87 /1975
ORACLE 82 86 /1916
PICACHO PEAK 92 92 /2007
NOGALES 6N 86 88 /1980
BISBEE-DOUGLAS APT 85 85 /2007
SIERRA VISTA 84 86/ 1916
SAFFORD AG STATION 84 85/ 2007
The best news is we start cooling off tomorrow and through the weekend!
How Cold was it This Morning?
I’ll need to update this post later today once the official lows from the area start coming in. Looks like some in Metro Tucson did dip to freezing this morning. The airport where the official thermometer is, stayed just above. I did a screen capture of this map of the National Weather Service observation sites in the area. This is from 7:30 this morning:
Oro Valley was at 35 and the thermometer closest to my apartment was as well. At the time my outdoor thermometer was reading 37. The airport was at 36. If you follow I-19 down to Sahaurita you can see a 32. There is another one in the foothills. Lots of 33 and 35 scattered around the area as well. This is just a snapshot at 7:30, so it’s possible that some of these temps bottomed out a degree or two or three lower.
I was surprised to see 35 at Mt. Lemmon! It may be a false reading. Notice 20 at nearby Scout Camp and 19 at the top of the Rincons!
Tucson Weather: October 28, 2009
Tucson Weather: Becoming partly cloudy with a few showers possible. Windy and cool with temperatures staying in the 50s for the most part. Winds gusting to near 30 at times. Freeze Warning tomorrow morning. Skies becoming mostly clear tonight and winds dying down. Lows in the low to mid 30s.
A strong cold front blew through last night and hit the apartment right at Midnight. There were a few showers with it too. It hadn’t rained in so long, I almost didn’t recognize the sound! I think there was hail in it the way it was hitting the window. Unfortunately, it wasn’t much rain. I don’t think it was enough to even cover the ground. At least not here.
The most exciting part of this storm is it’s strength. The National Weather Service has been marveling for a few days now about how strong a storm this is for late October. The Meteorologists have been saying this is more like a late November/early December storm! Yesterday the talk was, would Tucson break the record for the coldest high on record for October 28th. Doesn’t look like it. The record is 61, I think. Well, it was 68 here at the apartment when the front hit at Midnight so even though we will probably stay in the 50s today, the high at Midnight was too high.
The other cool news is this storm is bringing some mountain snow. But, since it’s a dry system, not much. Probably just a dusting to and inch or two on nearby Mt. Lemmon. The White Mountains to the north-northeast may get a bit more.
The next big news is the cold air moving in. The National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning for tomorrow morning. Widespread freezing temperatures are expected in the morning for Cochise and Santa Cruz and Graham Counties for sure. Easter Pinal and Eastern Pima too, although temps around Tucson Metro will be close. Low to mid 30s for most of town, so your mileage may vary. Outlying areas, low cold drainage areas like washes, and the Foothills have the best chance for a freeze in the morning. This is pretty early for a first freeze for Tucson. The average is November 24th! The earliest on record is October 16, 1899. Here are the numbers if you want to look at them in detail for yourself.
Tomorrow looks like another chilly day and Friday morning near freezing again. Then a fast warm up back into the 80s by early next week.
