Tucson Weather – Blizzardo! Above 8,000 Feet

Tucson Weather: Cloudy and windy with a chance of an isolated shower or two this afternoon.  High in the upper 50s.  Rain tonight with winds gusting over 30 mph.  Low in the upper 40s.  Showers tomorrow morning with some clearing by afternoon.  Windy and cooler.  Winds gusting over 30 with a high in the low 50s.

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This is one of those mornings where I am up early and my excitement for the incoming storm has me looking up the latest information and staying up!  I’ll probably catch a nap before work.

I’m also up early enough to read in the National Weather Service forecast discussion about the Blizzard Warning being issued for the Catalina/Pinaleno and White Mountains for tonight above 8,000 feet before the warning actually comes out probably around 4:30 this morning.

The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for tonight through tomorrow morning above 6,000 feet.  The added component of stronger winds above 8,000 feet has prompted the Blizzard Warning, which the weather service calls, “rare” around these parts.

As the storm gets closer more is known about the storm,  The expected snowfall amounts have been tweaked a little.  In the Catalina’s expecting about a foot of snow above 8,000 feet, 12-14 inches in the Pinaleno’s and perhaps over 18 inches in the White’s.  The snow will be heavy at times with snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour.  Combine that with 40-50 mph winds you have yourself a blizzard!  (mmmm blizzard)

Down here in the valley, expecting between a half inch to an inch of rain mainly tonight and tomorrow.  Winds could gust over 35 mph.  Kinda reminds me of Oregon!  Unfortunately, winds will be out of the southwest and west, so no driving rain against my north facing window like when I was a kid.  I miss that sound.

Tucson Weather – Upgrade

Congratulations.  Our Winter Storm Watch above 6,000 feet for Monday night and Tuesday for much of Southeastern Arizona has now been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning above 6,000 feet for Monday night and Tuesday for much of Southeastern Arizona.

The National Weather Service says that “confidence is high” especially since the computer models are in such good agreement and have been for awhile on this approaching storm.  A storm system dropping in from the northwest is deepening a trough along the west coast.  That is is expected to bring in plenty of moisture and that means rain in the valleys and significant snow above 6,000 feet.  Another component of the storm will be the strong winds.  That means sideways rain and blowing snow where it’s snowing with reduced visibilities.  As they used to say on Hill Street Blues, be careful out there.  Snowfall amounts should be significant if the forecast verifies.  6-12″ expected between 6,000 and 7,000 feet.  12 to 18″ expected above 7,000 feet!

Skies are expected to clear quickly Tuesday afternoon/evening and then we get ready for another storm Thursday/Friday time frame.  Should be great on Mt. Lemmon!  The question will be, when can I get up there?  Between storms maybe.  That’ll be nice, but even a week from Monday could work.  I’ll post pictures if/when I make it up to play in the snow!

Tucson Weather – Calm Before the Storm

Tucson Weather: Sunny today with a high near 65.  Partly cloudy tonight with a low near 38.  Mostly sunny on Sunday with a high near 64.

Great news from the National Weather Service.  Our typical December weather is fixin’ ta give way to valley rain and “significant mountain snow” by Monday night and Tuesday!  By significant, the National Weather Service office in Tucson is estimating 6-12 inches between 6,000 and 7,000 feet with snow totals 12-18 inches possible above 7,000.  Great news indeed if it comes true.  This might be enough to jump start the ski season at Ski Valley on the top of Mt. Lemmon.  If that doesn’t, then there is a chance for more “significant mountain snow” Thursday/Friday time frame.

Of course I am hopeful that Mt. Lemmon can get the maximum from each storm.  If that is the case, we could be looking at over 3 feet of snow up there by next weekend!  Even if there is less than a third of that, there will be plenty of snow to sled on and build snowmen with.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch above 6,000 feet for much of southeastern Arizona for Monday night and Tuesday.  That’s on top of this morning’s Freeze Warning that expires at 9am.

So, what is happening?  You can read about it in this morning’s Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service.  (note:  the link will take you to the latest discussion, so if you click it this afternoon it will be an updated discussion.  If you click it next July you will read about heat and maybe Monsoon :-)

Currently, southeastern Arizona is on the western edge of a cold Canadian airmass.  Cold dry air is giving us freezing temperatures this morning.  The quiet weather this weekend will give way to a storm that is expected to drop south out of Canada along the California coast and into the Great Basin.  The trough of low pressure that forms will allow moisture, and an upper level low in the pacific, to be pulled into Arizona.  That should bring us this good chance of rain and mountain snow by Monday night.

After that, the jet stream becomes more “zonal” or east to west across Arizona.  That should bring us an unsettled weather week with another storm moving in perhaps as early as Thursday with more rain and snow!

I love El Nino Winters in the southwest.  Looks like the AccuWeather Winter forecast is on track.  At least so far!

December – Cold Start

It’s been a roller coaster ride temperature-wise here in Tucson and here at the apartment in Oro Valley.  May had a hot spell in the middle of the month and ended up warmer than normal.  Then June into July was cooler than normal.  October had a really unusual cold spell the third week of the month and now November has ended as the 3rd warmest on record.

Keeping with the pattern, December is starting out cool and getting colder.  Even though many places in and around Tucson experienced their first freeze in October, almost a month earlier than average, the Tucson International Airport has yet to freeze this season.  That is about to change.  Cold air from Canada, eh, is already invading the South Plains of Eastern New Mexico and Texas and some of that cold air is going to spread westward to Arizona.  Friday looks cold (by Tucson standards) despite full sunshine.  A north breeze will make the upper 50s feel even colder in the shade, although I guess if you can find a sunny, wind sheltered, spot it won’t be nearly as bad.

Friday night/Saturday morning will be the coldest so far this season.  Winds will die down after sunset and clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling.  It should be no problem for temps to fall from the 50s into the 20s to near 30… even at the Tucson International Airport.

Next weeks weather pattern looks good for our dry conditions.  Cool unsettled weather looks to be on the way with valley rain showers and mountain snows possible off and on much of the week.  I hope so.  I really like the rain in the desert and I really am ready to head up to Mt. Lemmon to see some snow!

Meanwhile, AccuWeather is highlighting the expanding December cold with snow expected from the Pacific Northwest to Arizona to Eastern New Mexico to Louisiana to the Great Lakes and East Coast

Double Rainbow!, April 11, 2009

We had a beautiful double rainbow the afternoon of April 11, 2009. It stormed and rained off and on most of the day. We even had BB sized hail a few times which briefly approaching pea sized hail in the afternoon. Then later, this shower moved through combined with clearing in the west!

As always, click on a pic for a 1024×768 version.

Sunset – August 14, 2008

Shafted Sunset

Another AWESOME Sunset Arizona style. Heavy rain shaft to the west illuminated by a setting Sun. Too cool. As always, click on a pic for a 1024×768 version

I LOVE the Rain!

If you love it so much, why don’t you Marry it?”  Well maybe I will!

Soaked.  Kinda rare here in the desert, but not unheard of.  It POURED overnight with the promise of more rain this afternoon and evening.  The airport picked up a record for the date and it’s not even 7am yet!  Over an inch and a quarter.  Assuming we had more on this end of town (it looked like it on the radar) we are at about 4″ of rain since Saturday!

I’m supposed to drive to Yuma tonight to see my Dad and my sister and her kids who are visiting from Oregon.  Depending on the weather, I may wait until tomorrow morning.

In the meantime, just enjoy the coolness of the clouds and the rain.  We didn’t even get up to 90 yesterday!

Monsoon ‘08 Begins

AWESOME!  I finished with my haircut at SportsClips and saw how dark the sky was south, so I thought I’d go get a free car wash.  I was not disappointed!

Since I had been called in at Midnight because one of my employees was sick, I was off in the afternoon.  It was about 3:00 when I drove toward the storm.

I took Oracle and it was pretty light rain, but cool lightning ahead of me.  As I came down the hill toward River Road I noticed that the view of downtown was disappearing and the rain was picking up.  It was raining pretty good by the time I got to Prince.  I pressed southward and when I got to Grant it was a downpour!  My plan was to head over to First and back toward home.  As I turned East onto Grant I heard the hail ocassionally hitting the car.  The hail and rain were even more intense as I turned North onto 1st.  What FUN!  Visibility was low and folks were going slow.  I eventually drove back into light rain but the rain was pretty intense all the way to Wetmore.  The picture was taken a little after 3:00 around 1st and Prince.  I love the Monsoon!

Rain! and Global Cooling.

and Mountain snow too! Although I may not have time to visit the mountain snow anytime soon :-) Here’s a shot of my hummingbird feeder from this morning. I get a lot of hummingbird traffic. Rain or Shine!

This weather pattern is a bit odd for a La Nina year. Usually when a La Nina forms in the Pacific the Desert Southwest enjoys a warm dry Winter. Same for Southern California all the way to Texas. So far this year, not so much. It has been warm at times, but also very rainy here in Arizona. West Texas had snow for Thanksgiving, which is pretty rare! San Diego is getting soaked from this storm, and boy do they need the rain even if mudslides come with the territory. This is on the heels of an unusual El Nino year last year. Yes, if Tucson is going to get snow, it’s during El Nino Winters, and there was a 3″ snowfall last year. However, El Nino’s also usually means very wet weather for Southern California. It was quite the opposite last Winter. El Nino’s are almost always very dry for the Pacific Northwest. They had a wet Winter last year. So, what’s up?I have a theory, although I need to research it. Could it be tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation? Scientists are just now getting a clue about it. As far as I can tell, the pattern of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is for unusually warm water in the Northern Pacific for about 20 – 30 years, and then a sudden shift to unusually cold for 20 -30 years. Since scientists haven’t known about it that long, they don’t have a lot of data on the pattern, but that seems to be it generally this century. So, during “warm” cycles, Alaska is really warm (like the last 25 years). When it’s on the “cold” cycle, Alaska is really cold. Hmmmm. 30 years ago scientists were warning about the cooling of the Planet. For the last 20, they’ve been talking about the Planet warming up. Hmmmm.

Additionally, I wonder if El Nino and La Nina norms are affected by what phase the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in? Maybe I should apply for a grant and get to researching! If I’m right, this global warming nonsense is about to grow cold! Cool with me :-)

RAIN!!!

It’s a beautiful thing when the desert gets rain, and rain we got! It’s been brewing for several days. A big upper level low has been spinning off the coast of Baja California. That has been sending lots of tropical moisture northward into Arizona. Thursday, November 29th we had some light rain and cloudy skies. The best thing about the light rain is the smell. The desert just smells so awesome when it rains! The best thing about the cloudy skies is I get to drive with my moon roof open :-)

Friday, the low started moving our way. As it got closer, our rain increased in coverage and intensity. By the time I was driving home from Church last night it was pouring!!! I made the mistake of taking I-10. I will admit I was going a little too fast for the conditions. When it rains here, it runs off everywhere, including the freeway. There were a couple of places the water was a bit more intense then I anticipated. The first time, I was passing an SUV and it must have hit some extra water, because the rooster tail it threw on me caused me not to be able to see AT ALL! Thankfully, it was only temporary. A bit further down the road I hydroplaned worse then I ever have in my life. MANY times I have hydroplaned, but they have always been brief and no big deal. I stay off the brake and steer and no sweat. Last night took a little longer to get control back. Nothing bad happened. I didn’t go out of my lane. But my heart did speed up a little bit!

Once I got off the freeway, the driving conditions improved with some notable exceptions. There are lots of “dips” in the roads here. During heavy rain events, these become creeks and streams! I had to ford several on the way home. Most no more that a couple of feet deep. I’m glad there was traffic ahead of me so I could see what I was getting into :-)

I LOVE the rain! The drive was a nice adventure, although I will slow down on the freeway next time. I think I was a bit overconfident because of my past rain driving success. I think I had extra problems last night because it was night. Much harder to see the hazards.

I’m not sure how much rain we received, but I’ll be surprised if it was less than an inch. We can always use that kind of rain around here! Unfortunately, the snow level was too high for snow on Mt. Lemmon, although we may see some snow up there today. Probably not much though. Hopefully next time!

UPDATE:  2.25″ of rain reported near the apartment!

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