Winter Storm Warning, 3pm – 11am

Rain and snow moving in from a vigorous storm that is tapping some tropical moisture.  How low will snow levels go?  3,500 feet, maybe lower.  Yuma getting soaked and rain and snow is likely for southeast Arizona this afternoon through tomorrow morning:

High Wind and Blizzard Warning!

A robust storm, as it were, is barreling toward Arizona and the effects across the area promise to be dramatic.  The headline is the strong wind.  A strong southerly jet stream is driving this strong storm and the combination will translate into very strong winds in the lower elevations and even stronger winds higher up.  Gusts to 55 mph by this afternoon will be likely in the Tucson area and gusts to near 70 mph are possible in the mountains.  That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a HIGH WIND WARNING  from 11 this morning until 2am Friday.

Tonight is when the main impact of the storm will be felt.  Normally winds will decrease at night because you lose the mixing of the atmosphere leaving the strongest winds above your head.  Tonight that may not be the case as scattered thunderstorms will have the capability of pulling some of those higher winds down to the surface.  It’s possible that the high winds won’t decrease tonight at all.

Last time we had winds this strong there was a fatal pileup on Interstate 10 near Casa Grande.  Thankfully we had some rain yesterday morning and again this morning.  I’m hoping that the rain we’ve had combined with what is coming will be enough to keep the dust down.  Still, caution should always be observed driving on the Interstate near those usual blowing dust areas.  Also high profile vehicles may have difficulty with this wind.  Definitely a two hands on the wheel kind of driving day.  It’s also going to be possible to see some damage from these winds.  Downed trees and stuff like that may occur in town.

Higher up, the winds will combine with a lot of snow.  That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a BLIZZARD WARNING above 7,000 feet for tonight and tomorrow morning.

Initially, the snow level will be around 8,000 feet.  Our last storm left a few inches of snow as low as 6,000 feet.  The rain combined with some melting snow could result in some flooding in mountain streams and perhaps downstream.  Otherwise, snow levels will drop below 7,000 tonight and 1 to 2 feet of new snow is possible in the mountains around Tucson combined with winds gusting as high as 70 mph.  The White Mountains could get as much as 4 feet of snow from this storm!

As far as rain amounts in the lower elevations, we are expecting generally 3/4 of an inch to an inch and a half with this system.  Some areas could exceed 2 inches if they get a thunderstorm or two.  This is great news!  We need the rain.  The snow pack will help us out too.

Snow in Tucson?

Well, maybe in the Foothills and out towards Vail.  After the cold front moves through tonight, temperatures will start to drop and so will the snow level.  It’s possible that by early Saturday morning there may be some snow showers right down to the valley floor!  Accumulating snow is expected above 4,000 feet, but it’s worth watching.  This will be the back side of the storm so we aren’t talking about a whole lot of snow, but it’s possible that Oracle, Tombstone, Sierra Vista, Benson, and some other places could pick up a few inches.  IF the snow level can manage to get down to the 2,500 foot level maybe we could finally see snow here at the apartment in Oro Valley.  It’s not likely, but when the possibility gets this close, I start holding out hope.

Bottom line to all this?  Enjoy the adventure but be careful out there!

Another much much weaker storm is headed our way early next week as the El Nino pattern is kicking in.  El Nino dried out or Monsoon last Summer, let’s hope we can now make up for it in the remaining months of Winter into early Spring.

Tucson Weather, 11/29/09: Winter Storm Watch

I love El Nino years in the Southwest.  As the southern jet stream gets going, more storms take the southern route.  That means more rain and snow for places like Tucson.

After a very pleasant (and a warmer than average) November, the Thanksgiving weekend is ending with a nice pattern change.  A vigorous storm system is dropping in from the north.  The expected track is south through Yuma today and then turning the corner just south of the border.  As it tracks to the east just south of Tucson through Monday expect chilly temperatures with rain, and snow as low as 4,000 feet!

This morning we have an area of showers moving north through much of Tucson.  The low is still well to our west and the low has been pulling up moisture from the south.  Expect areas of showers to continue through the day today.  Even though a cold front has already moved through we are still on the warm side of the storm.  Today’s high should be near 60.

Tonight, the storm gets closer and the fun should really begin!  Scattered showers this evening and overnight with temperatures falling and snow levels dropping.  Could see snow sticking above 4,500 feet in places like:  Sierra Vista, Tombstone, Sonoita and Bisbee.  Snow could fall as low as 4,000 feet which means Oracle has a chance to see the snow fly, although it’s not expected to stick so much.  Places like my apartment at 2,600 feet should see chilly rain.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch above 4,500 feet for Sunday night through Monday afternoon for the Upper Gila River Valley, Tucson Metro, Marana, Green Valley, Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties.  Could see 2 to 7 inches of snow between 4,500 and 7,000 feet with 8 to 17 inches above 7,000 feet!

With southern Arizona in the favorable northern part of the storm, we should get the best part of the snow as it tracks on by.  After the storm leaves we should stay on the chilly side.  Highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s through much of next week.  Should be a great week to head up to Mt. Lemmon and play in the snow!  This won’t be enough to open up the ski area, but sledding, snowball fights and making snowmen will definitely be on the menu.

Another Tucson Record!

Three days in a row.  Yes, it’s been hot for this time of year.  I’m not positive, but I think that because time is traveling SO FAST for me these days, it seems like 91 is a cool Summer day.  Weird, I know.

It’s 2:47 in the afternoon as I am typing.  The indoor/outdoor thermometer here at the apartment in Oro Valley is reading 86 outside right now.  The airport is reporting 91.  That ties the record for the date and perhaps we’ll inch up a degree or three more.  Here are some records for today’s date straight from the Tucson National Weather Service Forecast Discussion this morning:

                     THURSDAY NOV 5
                  FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR

 TUCSON INTL APT     91       91 /2007
 AJO                 91       94 /2007
 ORGAN PIPE CACTUS   90       94 /1988
 KITT PEAK           75       87 /1975
 ORACLE              82       86 /1916
 PICACHO PEAK        92       92 /2007
 NOGALES 6N          86       88 /1980
 BISBEE-DOUGLAS APT  85       85 /2007
 SIERRA VISTA        84       86/ 1916
 SAFFORD AG STATION  84       85/ 2007

The best news is we start cooling off tomorrow and through the weekend!