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Global Warming Update

Winter Storm Warning, 3pm – 11am

Rain and snow moving in from a vigorous storm that is tapping some tropical moisture.  How low will snow levels go?  3,500 feet, maybe lower.  Yuma getting soaked and rain and snow is likely for southeast Arizona this afternoon through tomorrow morning:

Winter Storm Watch Tomorrow Afternoon – Thursday AM

A Fresh Coat

Another storm system approacheth Arizona as El Nino continues to flex.  This storm is much weaker than the last two, but we should still get a fresh coat of snow above 6,000 feet.  From the National Weather Service:

A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET…WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ABOVE 7500 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

The road to Mt. Lemmon FINALLY opened today after a couple three feet of snow from the last two storms.  Maybe another shut down after tonight/tomorrow’s storm but the skiing at Ski Valley probably hasn’t been this good in years, maybe decades!

Meanwhile, I hear that because of the recent power outages on the mountain, no credit or debit cards can be accepted.  Kinda crazy.  If you go, have fun!  Maybe I can join you, but I doubt it any time soon.  The good news is it will take a LONG time for this snow to melt, and with El Nino still going strong, it’s more likely we will add more before this Winter is done.

Catalina Mountain Snow Pics

It snowed overnight as advertised.  Just rain at the apartment.  .70″ is a nice rain overnight!  Above 4,000 feet that fell as snow.  That means the snow was pretty low on the mountains today.  I had to work this morning, so these pictures were taken in the early afternoon and the snow hadn’t retreated all that much.  Most of these pictures were taken at the trailhead to hike to Finger Rock located at the top of Alvernon in Tucson.  Be sure and click on the pics for full size versions.

Winter Storm Warning Just Issued

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a Winter Storm Warning above 4,000 feet in effect from 8:00 tonight until 11:00 a.m. tomorrow.

Here’s what they say about possible accumulations and snow levels:

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…SCATTERED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING…EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH AT 3500 TO 4000 FEET…2 TO 4 INCHES FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET…4 TO 6 INCHES FROM 5000 TO 7000 FEET…AND 6 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

SNOW LEVELS…SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER NEAR 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO 3000 FEET TONIGHT. THEY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY TO 3500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STORM DEPARTS.

So who lives at or around 3,000 feet? Residents in Catalina, Northern Oro Valley, Vail, Parts of the Foothills. My apartment is at about 2,600 feet. Much of Tucson Metro is around 2,400 feet.

Could be interesting by morning!

Snow in Tucson?

It could happen by tomorrow morning.  The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch above 4,000 feet for this evening through 11am tomorrow.  Here’s what’s happening.

A cold front blew through last night with some moderate to heavy rainfall lasting through the night.  We are now on the cold, unsettled side of the storm.  Today’s forecast is for much cooler with the rain showery in nature.  Cold air has moved in aloft, so especially this afternoon when we get a little bit of heating (yes, we get some heating even on a cloudy day) the atmosphere will be pretty unstable.  That means the possibility of some thunderstorms forming.  With such cold temperatures above our heads, it won’t take much for some of those storms to drop small hail.  The winds aren’t as strong as yesterday, and they aren’t as warm.  Yesterday it was south winds gusting to 60+.  Today it’s southwesterly winds gusting to 30ish.

Then there’s tonight.  Another weaker storm is on the heals of the one exiting right now.  It is coming straight down from the Gulf of Alaska.  It’s a cold system that will drop snow levels to 3,500 feet by morning and probably lower at times.  The storm is moving through at night and in the morning hours, so that increases the chances of very low snow levels.  The National Weather Service isn’t putting snow depths on it yet, but there is a chance of some good snows in towns south and east of Tucson such as Tombstone, Sierra Vista, Benson, Wilcox and of course Oracle.

Here’s the fun part.  This storm could also bring some convective activity with it.  In other words, some thunder is possible.  Any thunder activity would drag colder air aloft down to lower elevations causing snow levels to drop.  Even without thundersnow, it will be possible to see snow falling in the Tucson Metro area and possibly sticking in places like Catalina,  Oro Valley, Vail and the Foothills.

We will know more by tomorrow morning.

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