Weather, Man!

Man do I love weather.  It has been a passion and an obsession since I can remember.  It truly is how God made me.  Of course I have a very strong political and “religious” bent too.  I joke that my favorite subjects to discuss are politics and religion and that’s why God gave me such a passion for weather.  So I can relate to people with without offending them.  :-)

My weather fascination started very early.  My folks tell me that I was always talking about it even as a very young child.  I have early memories of unusual weather events when I was a wee lad in Los Angeles.  Severe Thunderstorms one afternoon and ice in the puddles at school one morning.  I was born in L.A. but we moved to Oregon when I was 8.

Growing up in Oregon was great for a weather freak like me.  Numerous storms coming off the ocean and in the 70s that meant lots of surprises in the actual weather compared to the forecast.  Fluctuating snow levels in the Cascades, east winds into Portland combining with overrunning warm air bringing epic ice storms, but not to our house :-( and I could go on about the different weather phenomenon I got to witness first hand.

I had the TV weather down.  KOIN would have the weather on first so I would watch that.  Then I’d switch over to KGW and catch most of their forecast.  Then it was over to KATU to watch the tail end of their weather.  This was especially important on the rare nights when the snow level had a chance to come down to the Willamette Valley Floor.  I remember many a frustrating evening watching it rain while I would stare at the thermometer stuck at 36 degrees trying to will it to come down.

So obviously I was going to go to school to study Meteorology.  I had it all planned out.  Go to the University of Alaska at Fairbanks and get a BS in Meteorology and minor in Communications.  They had a TV station on campus.  I had a great score on my ACT and was even accepted into their advanced math program.  I was set.  One big problem.  My drug problem.  I still had some growing up to do and I blew my chance to go to school.

The story doesn’t end there however!  I ended up moving to Roswell, NM a few years later.  At 21 years old I took what I could carry and bought a bus ticket and started re-pursuing my dream to be on Radio and TV.  Math and Science were always my favorite subjects in school so naturally I went into broadcasting.

I got a part time radio gig in the early Summer of 1984.  That turned into a full time radio gig.  First overnights and then evenings and then Music Director.  After two years I jumped over to TV as a Master Control Operator, directing news cut-ins and also voicing, shooting and editing commercials.  From there it was into the News Department at another station as a news photog, then a reporter who shot his own stuff and also backing up the weatherman and then finally the weatherman!

Lots of detail left out in the above story, but God helped make a way for me when I had messed up and didn’t choose the easier way.  After another 8 or 9 years on the morning show in Lubbock, Texas as a weatherman, news anchor and feature reporter my life took another turn.  Through it all I have never ever never stopped loving and studying the weather.

Now here I am in Tucson, Arizona.  I have a web site and morning weather web show dedicated to my weather passion.  I just can’t help but share whether the audience is big or small.  When you have a chance, check out the site.  TucsonWeather.us and tune in to “Coffee and a Forecast” every morning (yes, weekends too) at 5:50 Tucson time for the live recording.  Or you can just catch up with it later when I post it on the site and in the Facebook group Tucson Weather.

Whether it is mud in the Pacific Northwest, Baseball sized hail in Lubbock, or Monsoon storms with amazing lightning in Tucson, I love weather.  I especially love snow and cold!  But that is another blog entry (or two).

Of course I have other passions and other web sites that support those.  There is also a lot of detail left out of the above story.  All fodder for future blog entries.  I better post this and get to work.  “Coffee and a Forecast” airs in less then an hour. :-)

High Wind and Blizzard Warning!

A robust storm, as it were, is barreling toward Arizona and the effects across the area promise to be dramatic.  The headline is the strong wind.  A strong southerly jet stream is driving this strong storm and the combination will translate into very strong winds in the lower elevations and even stronger winds higher up.  Gusts to 55 mph by this afternoon will be likely in the Tucson area and gusts to near 70 mph are possible in the mountains.  That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a HIGH WIND WARNING  from 11 this morning until 2am Friday.

Tonight is when the main impact of the storm will be felt.  Normally winds will decrease at night because you lose the mixing of the atmosphere leaving the strongest winds above your head.  Tonight that may not be the case as scattered thunderstorms will have the capability of pulling some of those higher winds down to the surface.  It’s possible that the high winds won’t decrease tonight at all.

Last time we had winds this strong there was a fatal pileup on Interstate 10 near Casa Grande.  Thankfully we had some rain yesterday morning and again this morning.  I’m hoping that the rain we’ve had combined with what is coming will be enough to keep the dust down.  Still, caution should always be observed driving on the Interstate near those usual blowing dust areas.  Also high profile vehicles may have difficulty with this wind.  Definitely a two hands on the wheel kind of driving day.  It’s also going to be possible to see some damage from these winds.  Downed trees and stuff like that may occur in town.

Higher up, the winds will combine with a lot of snow.  That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a BLIZZARD WARNING above 7,000 feet for tonight and tomorrow morning.

Initially, the snow level will be around 8,000 feet.  Our last storm left a few inches of snow as low as 6,000 feet.  The rain combined with some melting snow could result in some flooding in mountain streams and perhaps downstream.  Otherwise, snow levels will drop below 7,000 tonight and 1 to 2 feet of new snow is possible in the mountains around Tucson combined with winds gusting as high as 70 mph.  The White Mountains could get as much as 4 feet of snow from this storm!

As far as rain amounts in the lower elevations, we are expecting generally 3/4 of an inch to an inch and a half with this system.  Some areas could exceed 2 inches if they get a thunderstorm or two.  This is great news!  We need the rain.  The snow pack will help us out too.

Snow in Tucson?

Well, maybe in the Foothills and out towards Vail.  After the cold front moves through tonight, temperatures will start to drop and so will the snow level.  It’s possible that by early Saturday morning there may be some snow showers right down to the valley floor!  Accumulating snow is expected above 4,000 feet, but it’s worth watching.  This will be the back side of the storm so we aren’t talking about a whole lot of snow, but it’s possible that Oracle, Tombstone, Sierra Vista, Benson, and some other places could pick up a few inches.  IF the snow level can manage to get down to the 2,500 foot level maybe we could finally see snow here at the apartment in Oro Valley.  It’s not likely, but when the possibility gets this close, I start holding out hope.

Bottom line to all this?  Enjoy the adventure but be careful out there!

Another much much weaker storm is headed our way early next week as the El Nino pattern is kicking in.  El Nino dried out or Monsoon last Summer, let’s hope we can now make up for it in the remaining months of Winter into early Spring.

Alaska Glaciers Grow

One cool summer after a cold winter does not mean that Global Warming is officially over.  However, combined with all of the evidence I have outlined over the past two years on this blog I’d say probably.  After all, that’s what the measurements say!

I found another article this morning that supports the claim.  It’s very well written and not spun one way or the other politically.  It’s just straight science!  Thank You!  Here’s the link.

Basically, the scientist in the article is saying that a lot of cold and snow last winter combined with a really cool summer this summer has caused glaciers in Alaska to grow since last year.  He rightly points out that glaciers shrink and grow over decades.

What the article doesn’t predict is which way they are likely to go from here.  I’ve been saying all along that now that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has switched to a cold phase (after 30 years in a warm phase), and now that the Sun has become much quieter, we can expect an extended cold snap.  Especially in Alaska where it’s already begun!

Politically, I would say, PLEASE don’t throw a bunch of money at a Global Warming problem that is no problem at all.  This is all natural, cyclical, stuff.  Rather, PLEASE plan on helping to feed people and keep them warm as the planet cools!

Summerless

in Alaska.  The Anchorage Daily News reports it could be the COLDEST SUMMER EVER in Anchorage!  The Weather Service says it’s La Nina’s fault and when it fades temps should return to average or above.  We will see.  This blog and others have been talking about a cooler Sun.  If that’s true, look for a COLD Winter in a lot of places even after La Nina is gone.

Seasonably Hot

After a cool April and May (all Spring & Winter, really) we are realizing our seasonably hot season in mid June.  As you can see, the hottest part of the day is still a few hours a way and we are already at 106!  The “cool” thing is because of the lack of humidity, it “feels like” 105 :-)

The average high for today is 100, so 106 is pretty normal for this time of year.  Tomorrow is supposed to be hotter, so maybe we’ll hit that 110.  Too me it’s not terribly terribly hot until we start getting over 110.  Overall it’s been quite cool around here until lately.  I guess we couldn’t skip Summer this year.  Hopefully the thunderstorms will start on time two to three weeks from now.  The monsoon in Arizona is good times!

UPDATE:  We topped out at 106, but stayed 105 – 106 until almost 6pm.