Winter Storm Warning, 3pm – 11am

Rain and snow moving in from a vigorous storm that is tapping some tropical moisture.  How low will snow levels go?  3,500 feet, maybe lower.  Yuma getting soaked and rain and snow is likely for southeast Arizona this afternoon through tomorrow morning:

Winter Storm Warning Just Issued

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a Winter Storm Warning above 4,000 feet in effect from 8:00 tonight until 11:00 a.m. tomorrow.

Here’s what they say about possible accumulations and snow levels:

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…SCATTERED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING…EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH AT 3500 TO 4000 FEET…2 TO 4 INCHES FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET…4 TO 6 INCHES FROM 5000 TO 7000 FEET…AND 6 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

SNOW LEVELS…SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER NEAR 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO 3000 FEET TONIGHT. THEY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY TO 3500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STORM DEPARTS.

So who lives at or around 3,000 feet? Residents in Catalina, Northern Oro Valley, Vail, Parts of the Foothills. My apartment is at about 2,600 feet. Much of Tucson Metro is around 2,400 feet.

Could be interesting by morning!

Snow in Tucson?

It could happen by tomorrow morning.  The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch above 4,000 feet for this evening through 11am tomorrow.  Here’s what’s happening.

A cold front blew through last night with some moderate to heavy rainfall lasting through the night.  We are now on the cold, unsettled side of the storm.  Today’s forecast is for much cooler with the rain showery in nature.  Cold air has moved in aloft, so especially this afternoon when we get a little bit of heating (yes, we get some heating even on a cloudy day) the atmosphere will be pretty unstable.  That means the possibility of some thunderstorms forming.  With such cold temperatures above our heads, it won’t take much for some of those storms to drop small hail.  The winds aren’t as strong as yesterday, and they aren’t as warm.  Yesterday it was south winds gusting to 60+.  Today it’s southwesterly winds gusting to 30ish.

Then there’s tonight.  Another weaker storm is on the heals of the one exiting right now.  It is coming straight down from the Gulf of Alaska.  It’s a cold system that will drop snow levels to 3,500 feet by morning and probably lower at times.  The storm is moving through at night and in the morning hours, so that increases the chances of very low snow levels.  The National Weather Service isn’t putting snow depths on it yet, but there is a chance of some good snows in towns south and east of Tucson such as Tombstone, Sierra Vista, Benson, Wilcox and of course Oracle.

Here’s the fun part.  This storm could also bring some convective activity with it.  In other words, some thunder is possible.  Any thunder activity would drag colder air aloft down to lower elevations causing snow levels to drop.  Even without thundersnow, it will be possible to see snow falling in the Tucson Metro area and possibly sticking in places like Catalina,  Oro Valley, Vail and the Foothills.

We will know more by tomorrow morning.

High Wind and Blizzard Warning!

A robust storm, as it were, is barreling toward Arizona and the effects across the area promise to be dramatic.  The headline is the strong wind.  A strong southerly jet stream is driving this strong storm and the combination will translate into very strong winds in the lower elevations and even stronger winds higher up.  Gusts to 55 mph by this afternoon will be likely in the Tucson area and gusts to near 70 mph are possible in the mountains.  That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a HIGH WIND WARNING  from 11 this morning until 2am Friday.

Tonight is when the main impact of the storm will be felt.  Normally winds will decrease at night because you lose the mixing of the atmosphere leaving the strongest winds above your head.  Tonight that may not be the case as scattered thunderstorms will have the capability of pulling some of those higher winds down to the surface.  It’s possible that the high winds won’t decrease tonight at all.

Last time we had winds this strong there was a fatal pileup on Interstate 10 near Casa Grande.  Thankfully we had some rain yesterday morning and again this morning.  I’m hoping that the rain we’ve had combined with what is coming will be enough to keep the dust down.  Still, caution should always be observed driving on the Interstate near those usual blowing dust areas.  Also high profile vehicles may have difficulty with this wind.  Definitely a two hands on the wheel kind of driving day.  It’s also going to be possible to see some damage from these winds.  Downed trees and stuff like that may occur in town.

Higher up, the winds will combine with a lot of snow.  That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a BLIZZARD WARNING above 7,000 feet for tonight and tomorrow morning.

Initially, the snow level will be around 8,000 feet.  Our last storm left a few inches of snow as low as 6,000 feet.  The rain combined with some melting snow could result in some flooding in mountain streams and perhaps downstream.  Otherwise, snow levels will drop below 7,000 tonight and 1 to 2 feet of new snow is possible in the mountains around Tucson combined with winds gusting as high as 70 mph.  The White Mountains could get as much as 4 feet of snow from this storm!

As far as rain amounts in the lower elevations, we are expecting generally 3/4 of an inch to an inch and a half with this system.  Some areas could exceed 2 inches if they get a thunderstorm or two.  This is great news!  We need the rain.  The snow pack will help us out too.

Snow in Tucson?

Well, maybe in the Foothills and out towards Vail.  After the cold front moves through tonight, temperatures will start to drop and so will the snow level.  It’s possible that by early Saturday morning there may be some snow showers right down to the valley floor!  Accumulating snow is expected above 4,000 feet, but it’s worth watching.  This will be the back side of the storm so we aren’t talking about a whole lot of snow, but it’s possible that Oracle, Tombstone, Sierra Vista, Benson, and some other places could pick up a few inches.  IF the snow level can manage to get down to the 2,500 foot level maybe we could finally see snow here at the apartment in Oro Valley.  It’s not likely, but when the possibility gets this close, I start holding out hope.

Bottom line to all this?  Enjoy the adventure but be careful out there!

Another much much weaker storm is headed our way early next week as the El Nino pattern is kicking in.  El Nino dried out or Monsoon last Summer, let’s hope we can now make up for it in the remaining months of Winter into early Spring.