Global Warming Update

Winter Storm Watch Tomorrow Afternoon – Thursday AM

A Fresh Coat

Another storm system approacheth Arizona as El Nino continues to flex.  This storm is much weaker than the last two, but we should still get a fresh coat of snow above 6,000 feet.  From the National Weather Service:

A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET…WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ABOVE 7500 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

The road to Mt. Lemmon FINALLY opened today after a couple three feet of snow from the last two storms.  Maybe another shut down after tonight/tomorrow’s storm but the skiing at Ski Valley probably hasn’t been this good in years, maybe decades!

Meanwhile, I hear that because of the recent power outages on the mountain, no credit or debit cards can be accepted.  Kinda crazy.  If you go, have fun!  Maybe I can join you, but I doubt it any time soon.  The good news is it will take a LONG time for this snow to melt, and with El Nino still going strong, it’s more likely we will add more before this Winter is done.

Winter Storm Warning Just Issued

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a Winter Storm Warning above 4,000 feet in effect from 8:00 tonight until 11:00 a.m. tomorrow.

Here’s what they say about possible accumulations and snow levels:

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…SCATTERED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING…EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH AT 3500 TO 4000 FEET…2 TO 4 INCHES FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET…4 TO 6 INCHES FROM 5000 TO 7000 FEET…AND 6 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

SNOW LEVELS…SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER NEAR 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO 3000 FEET TONIGHT. THEY WILL RISE SLIGHTLY TO 3500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STORM DEPARTS.

So who lives at or around 3,000 feet? Residents in Catalina, Northern Oro Valley, Vail, Parts of the Foothills. My apartment is at about 2,600 feet. Much of Tucson Metro is around 2,400 feet.

Could be interesting by morning!

High Wind and Blizzard Warning!

A robust storm, as it were, is barreling toward Arizona and the effects across the area promise to be dramatic.  The headline is the strong wind.  A strong southerly jet stream is driving this strong storm and the combination will translate into very strong winds in the lower elevations and even stronger winds higher up.  Gusts to 55 mph by this afternoon will be likely in the Tucson area and gusts to near 70 mph are possible in the mountains.  That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a HIGH WIND WARNING  from 11 this morning until 2am Friday.

Tonight is when the main impact of the storm will be felt.  Normally winds will decrease at night because you lose the mixing of the atmosphere leaving the strongest winds above your head.  Tonight that may not be the case as scattered thunderstorms will have the capability of pulling some of those higher winds down to the surface.  It’s possible that the high winds won’t decrease tonight at all.

Last time we had winds this strong there was a fatal pileup on Interstate 10 near Casa Grande.  Thankfully we had some rain yesterday morning and again this morning.  I’m hoping that the rain we’ve had combined with what is coming will be enough to keep the dust down.  Still, caution should always be observed driving on the Interstate near those usual blowing dust areas.  Also high profile vehicles may have difficulty with this wind.  Definitely a two hands on the wheel kind of driving day.  It’s also going to be possible to see some damage from these winds.  Downed trees and stuff like that may occur in town.

Higher up, the winds will combine with a lot of snow.  That’s why the National Weather Service has issued a BLIZZARD WARNING above 7,000 feet for tonight and tomorrow morning.

Initially, the snow level will be around 8,000 feet.  Our last storm left a few inches of snow as low as 6,000 feet.  The rain combined with some melting snow could result in some flooding in mountain streams and perhaps downstream.  Otherwise, snow levels will drop below 7,000 tonight and 1 to 2 feet of new snow is possible in the mountains around Tucson combined with winds gusting as high as 70 mph.  The White Mountains could get as much as 4 feet of snow from this storm!

As far as rain amounts in the lower elevations, we are expecting generally 3/4 of an inch to an inch and a half with this system.  Some areas could exceed 2 inches if they get a thunderstorm or two.  This is great news!  We need the rain.  The snow pack will help us out too.

Snow in Tucson?

Well, maybe in the Foothills and out towards Vail.  After the cold front moves through tonight, temperatures will start to drop and so will the snow level.  It’s possible that by early Saturday morning there may be some snow showers right down to the valley floor!  Accumulating snow is expected above 4,000 feet, but it’s worth watching.  This will be the back side of the storm so we aren’t talking about a whole lot of snow, but it’s possible that Oracle, Tombstone, Sierra Vista, Benson, and some other places could pick up a few inches.  IF the snow level can manage to get down to the 2,500 foot level maybe we could finally see snow here at the apartment in Oro Valley.  It’s not likely, but when the possibility gets this close, I start holding out hope.

Bottom line to all this?  Enjoy the adventure but be careful out there!

Another much much weaker storm is headed our way early next week as the El Nino pattern is kicking in.  El Nino dried out or Monsoon last Summer, let’s hope we can now make up for it in the remaining months of Winter into early Spring.

Guaranteed White Christmas

Thanx to the internets!  There is a Christmas Blizzard brewing right now pretty much over Lubbock, Texas’ head.  The storm started as rain in California, but brought snow to some areas south of Tucson.  The storm sank further southward than originally expected and the forecast for Lubbock changed from rain and some snow to some rain and more snow!  Right now the Hub City is covered with about 6″ and it’s coming down sideways.  The 7am observation at LBB is:  “Snow, Freezing Fog, Blowing Snow and Windy, 26.”  I’m jealous, especially since I should have been there had I had a few extra $$s.  Thankfully, there is the internets.

This gathering storm is now plowing east.  The kids and grandkids north of Dallas are under a Winter Storm Warning and they could see rain changing to snow by this afternoon and maybe an inch or three just in time for Christmas!

Add this snow to what is already on the ground and a large chuck of the U.S. is fixin’ ta have a White Christmas.  If you aren’t, then just surf some web cams, put on some Bing Crosby and dare to dream!

Tucson Weather – Calm Before the Storm

Tucson Weather: Sunny today with a high near 65.  Partly cloudy tonight with a low near 38.  Mostly sunny on Sunday with a high near 64.

Great news from the National Weather Service.  Our typical December weather is fixin’ ta give way to valley rain and “significant mountain snow” by Monday night and Tuesday!  By significant, the National Weather Service office in Tucson is estimating 6-12 inches between 6,000 and 7,000 feet with snow totals 12-18 inches possible above 7,000.  Great news indeed if it comes true.  This might be enough to jump start the ski season at Ski Valley on the top of Mt. Lemmon.  If that doesn’t, then there is a chance for more “significant mountain snow” Thursday/Friday time frame.

Of course I am hopeful that Mt. Lemmon can get the maximum from each storm.  If that is the case, we could be looking at over 3 feet of snow up there by next weekend!  Even if there is less than a third of that, there will be plenty of snow to sled on and build snowmen with.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch above 6,000 feet for much of southeastern Arizona for Monday night and Tuesday.  That’s on top of this morning’s Freeze Warning that expires at 9am.

So, what is happening?  You can read about it in this morning’s Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service.  (note:  the link will take you to the latest discussion, so if you click it this afternoon it will be an updated discussion.  If you click it next July you will read about heat and maybe Monsoon :-)

Currently, southeastern Arizona is on the western edge of a cold Canadian airmass.  Cold dry air is giving us freezing temperatures this morning.  The quiet weather this weekend will give way to a storm that is expected to drop south out of Canada along the California coast and into the Great Basin.  The trough of low pressure that forms will allow moisture, and an upper level low in the pacific, to be pulled into Arizona.  That should bring us this good chance of rain and mountain snow by Monday night.

After that, the jet stream becomes more “zonal” or east to west across Arizona.  That should bring us an unsettled weather week with another storm moving in perhaps as early as Thursday with more rain and snow!

I love El Nino Winters in the southwest.  Looks like the AccuWeather Winter forecast is on track.  At least so far!

Dallas/Ft. Worth Snow!

It’s snowing in Dallas/Ft. Worth this morning.  I found this web cam image in Ft. Worth that shows snow sticking to the grass.  Looks like AccuWeather’s Winter forecast is coming true!

UPDATE 9:39 a.m. MST: KDFW in Dallas has a great slide show of this morning’s snow!

New Mexico/Texas Storm Now…

The storm that left 5″ of snow on Mt. Lemmon and even a dusting on Tombstone has now moved into Far West Texas.  El Paso has had a couple of inches of snow from the storm as the vigorous upper level low combines with more moisture and some cooler air.  The Sun isn’t quite up yet in El Paso, but here are some web cams to check this morning before it all melts.  The roads look wet, so the snow has marginal sticking power in El Paso even though they do have a Winter Storm Warning.

Meanwhile in Roswell, NM (my old stomping grounds) it’s snowing right now with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect.  They are expecting “Generally 2-4″ of snow..”  Here’s a nice web cam on the Pecos River in Carlsbad, NM with which to watch the snow coming down.

Lubbock, where I also lived for years, is expecting 1-3″ of snow with some sleet and rain mixed in today.  Yes, I am jealous!

The good news is (for snow lovers like me) El Nino Winters are generally cooler and snowier for places like Roswell, Lubbock, El Paso and even Tucson.  We’re just getting warmed up… er started.

Update 6:24 a.m. MST: The El Paso cams I have linked are somewhat of a bust with images from last night that aren’t updating.  However, the Carlsbad “Brad Light’s Cam” camera is GREAT!  Here’s a shot I just captured.  Snow in Carlsbad!

Update 6:42 a.m. MST: Here is a link to webcams in Midland, Odessa, Notrees and Hobbs.  Snow in Hobbs and a dusting in Notrees.  Also, a friend of mine on Facebook, Jessica Armstrong, says it has started to snow in Lubbock near 50th and Quaker.

Update 8:07 a.m. MST:  Snow sticking in Lubbock.  Courtesy KCBD First Alert DigitalTower Cam:

Will it be freezing in Tucson by Sunrise?

I’m thinking yes!  Here’s why.  We have had cold air advection since the cold front passed through almost exactly 24 hours ago.  Today’s (October 28th) high was at midnight and didn’t rebound much from the morning temperature.  The afternoon high might have been 60, but most of the day was in the 50s with a chilly wind.  MUCH below normal for Tucson for October 28th.  More typical of Winter in Tucson rather than Fall.

The cold air has moved in now the skies have cleared and the wind has died down.  Perfect conditions for radiational cooling!  Also, the dewpoint is 10, so the air is dry.  The midnight temperature on my outside thermometer is reading 44 degrees.  Just 12 more to go in 6 or 7 hours.  I think we will make it here at the apartment in Oro Valley.  The National Weather Service is saying 34 for a low at the Tucson International Airport.  They have also issued a Freeze Warning for the entire area from 1am to 9am.

Some of the more favored areas should have no problem getting down to freezing such as outlying areas.  Some of the higher elevations as well, of course.  I’m thinking Oracle will shatter their record low of 31.  Also, low elevations like near the washes will be colder.  Cold air is heavier than the relatively warmer air around it, so the colder air drains into and pools in the low areas like washes.

The record low for Tucson on October 29th is 32 set in 1912.  We have a decent shot!  If not by morning, we can try again Friday morning.  Looks like another night near freezing before we warm up by early next week.

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