Dallas/Ft. Worth Snow!
It’s snowing in Dallas/Ft. Worth this morning. I found this web cam image in Ft. Worth that shows snow sticking to the grass. Looks like AccuWeather’s Winter forecast is coming true!
Snowy Big D
UPDATE 9:39 a.m. MST: KDFW in Dallas has a great slide show of this morning’s snow!
New Mexico/Texas Storm Now…
Last year on Mt. Lemmon
The storm that left 5″ of snow on Mt. Lemmon and even a dusting on Tombstone has now moved into Far West Texas. El Paso has had a couple of inches of snow from the storm as the vigorous upper level low combines with more moisture and some cooler air. The Sun isn’t quite up yet in El Paso, but here are some web cams to check this morning before it all melts. The roads look wet, so the snow has marginal sticking power in El Paso even though they do have a Winter Storm Warning.
Meanwhile in Roswell, NM (my old stomping grounds) it’s snowing right now with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect. They are expecting “Generally 2-4″ of snow..” Here’s a nice web cam on the Pecos River in Carlsbad, NM with which to watch the snow coming down.
Lubbock, where I also lived for years, is expecting 1-3″ of snow with some sleet and rain mixed in today. Yes, I am jealous!
The good news is (for snow lovers like me) El Nino Winters are generally cooler and snowier for places like Roswell, Lubbock, El Paso and even Tucson. We’re just getting warmed up… er started.
Update 6:24 a.m. MST: The El Paso cams I have linked are somewhat of a bust with images from last night that aren’t updating. However, the Carlsbad “Brad Light’s Cam” camera is GREAT! Here’s a shot I just captured. Snow in Carlsbad!
Snow Day in Carlsbad, NM!
Update 6:42 a.m. MST: Here is a link to webcams in Midland, Odessa, Notrees and Hobbs. Snow in Hobbs and a dusting in Notrees. Also, a friend of mine on Facebook, Jessica Armstrong, says it has started to snow in Lubbock near 50th and Quaker.
Update 8:07 a.m. MST: Snow sticking in Lubbock. Courtesy KCBD First Alert DigitalTower Cam:
Grassy areas and roofs right now
Will it be freezing in Tucson by Sunrise?
I’m thinking yes! Here’s why. We have had cold air advection since the cold front passed through almost exactly 24 hours ago. Today’s (October 28th) high was at midnight and didn’t rebound much from the morning temperature. The afternoon high might have been 60, but most of the day was in the 50s with a chilly wind. MUCH below normal for Tucson for October 28th. More typical of Winter in Tucson rather than Fall.
The cold air has moved in now the skies have cleared and the wind has died down. Perfect conditions for radiational cooling! Also, the dewpoint is 10, so the air is dry. The midnight temperature on my outside thermometer is reading 44 degrees. Just 12 more to go in 6 or 7 hours. I think we will make it here at the apartment in Oro Valley. The National Weather Service is saying 34 for a low at the Tucson International Airport. They have also issued a Freeze Warning for the entire area from 1am to 9am.
Some of the more favored areas should have no problem getting down to freezing such as outlying areas. Some of the higher elevations as well, of course. I’m thinking Oracle will shatter their record low of 31. Also, low elevations like near the washes will be colder. Cold air is heavier than the relatively warmer air around it, so the colder air drains into and pools in the low areas like washes.
The record low for Tucson on October 29th is 32 set in 1912. We have a decent shot! If not by morning, we can try again Friday morning. Looks like another night near freezing before we warm up by early next week.
It was mostly cloudy most of the day
But it cleared up before sunset
Alaska Glaciers Grow
One cool summer after a cold winter does not mean that Global Warming is officially over. However, combined with all of the evidence I have outlined over the past two years on this blog I’d say probably. After all, that’s what the measurements say!
I found another article this morning that supports the claim. It’s very well written and not spun one way or the other politically. It’s just straight science! Thank You! Here’s the link.
Basically, the scientist in the article is saying that a lot of cold and snow last winter combined with a really cool summer this summer has caused glaciers in Alaska to grow since last year. He rightly points out that glaciers shrink and grow over decades.
What the article doesn’t predict is which way they are likely to go from here. I’ve been saying all along that now that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has switched to a cold phase (after 30 years in a warm phase), and now that the Sun has become much quieter, we can expect an extended cold snap. Especially in Alaska where it’s already begun!
Politically, I would say, PLEASE don’t throw a bunch of money at a Global Warming problem that is no problem at all. This is all natural, cyclical, stuff. Rather, PLEASE plan on helping to feed people and keep them warm as the planet cools!
Summerless
in Alaska. The Anchorage Daily News reports it could be the COLDEST SUMMER EVER in Anchorage! The Weather Service says it’s La Nina’s fault and when it fades temps should return to average or above. We will see. This blog and others have been talking about a cooler Sun. If that’s true, look for a COLD Winter in a lot of places even after La Nina is gone.
Prediction
I had a scary thought earlier today. There are many indications that this Winter will be early and cold. Here’s AccuWeather’s prediction, plus the possibility the Pacific Decadal Oscillation may have flipped and a quiet Sun that already has us cooled off to 1930′s levels.
Combine that with high energy prices that will likely hold steady until Winter. If the Winter is early and colder than normal it may cause heating oil and gas prices to go up even more. Utilities are already asking for, and getting, rate increases.
We could end up with many angry Americans who are paying too much for energy, going broke and freezing. The outcry against everyone in government who stands in the way of domestic oil production, especially if they mention Global Warming, could be severe.
I hope I’m wrong about the first part because I don’t want anyone to suffer. However, it could have it’s benefits if it kills the Global Warming nonsense once and for all. Still, I don’t want to see anyone freeze to death or kids going hungry.
It’s sad that our leaders have led us to a place where this scenario is even possible.
I Agree with Al Gore!
sorta. Here’s the article. It previews Al’s upcoming speech. I agree in part. Gore is calling for a switch from fossil fuels to alternative energy in the next ten years. OK, I think that’s great, but there are three major problems with his plan. 1st, no new drilling for oil. If you read the post below, or if you’ve read this blog much at all, you know I don’t buy into catastrophic man-made global warming. The Earth has already cooled back down to 1930 levels even though CO2 levels continue to rise. Any comprehensive energy policy HAS to include Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less!
We have to be serious about drilling for the oil we have in the country and off the coast. It’s the only way the price will come down in the near term. Even if it takes a few years for that oil to come online, futures traders will look into the future and see more supply coming on to meet demand and the price will be bid down. Simple economics. You’d think the Democrats would have figured that out! I’d hate to think they were intentionally misleading people on that point.
The second problem with Gore’s plan. No new nuclear power plants. France gets 80% of it’s electricity from nuclear. We get 20%. Nuclear power would be a great way to get more electricity online quickly and relatively inexpensively if the environmentalists don’t sue and delay and obstruct. Unfortunately, that is what they have done in the past, and they have been successful at increasing the red tape needed to get through to get a plant approved. It causes the price of power to be artificially inflated.
The environmental movement which Al Gore now leads is a huge part of the reason we have high gas and energy prices now. I say we do it all. Drill for oil, everywhere! Extract oil from shale. Build nuclear plants. Build wind farms. Build solar power plants. In other words, what the Republicans are talking about already.
Please. DON’T bring back the national 55 mph speed limit! It might be OK for the east coast, but here in the west it’s a long way to go that slow.
The third problem with Gore’s plan? Capping CO2 emissions like Europe does and like what was proposed and defeated in Congress just a couple of month’s ago. If we capped CO2 and forced “polluters” (CO2 is not a pollutant, but they want to designate as one) to pay fines, that will raise energy prices astronomically! It would cripple the country economically, and only the rich could drive or fly or keep warm in Winter.
Come to think of it, I guess I don’t really agree with Al Gore after all.
Cold Winter Continues!
Picture from Borealis Broadband Webcam taken this afternoon.
There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was exceptionally cold. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries, the winter in China was simply terrible and the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook discovered the place in 1770.
It is generally not possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends from events in a single year, so I would normally dismiss this cold snap as transient, pending what happens in the next few years.
This is where SOHO comes in. The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.
It didn’t happen. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon.
The reason this matters is that there is a close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth’s climate. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum, an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790.
Northern winters became ferocious: in particular, the rout of Napoleon’s Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots.
That the rapid temperature decline in 2007 coincided with the failure of cycle No.24 to begin on schedule is not proof of a causal connection but it is cause for concern.
Cause for concern if: you like normal growing seasons, you like Winter to start and end on time (rather than start early and end late like this year), you are a Global Warming true believer and are committed to raising carbon taxes and receiving grant $$.
I hate to admit it, but I am rooting for cold cold and COLDER. I’ve always liked the cold and I would really really like to see Al Gore and his followers have to admit they are wrong.
Stay tuned and we will all see what happens.
Global Warming Madness
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I’m telling you it’s getting outta hand. The UN wants to tax us and take more control, that’s the real motive behind this Global Warming nonsense. Read this article if you think all scientists agree that man is causing a catastrophe of Biblical proportions. Quite the opposite. This former Global warming believer has reconsidered his position because the facts don’t back it up. The Earth has stopped warming in the past five years. Ice is at record levels around Antarctica. Ice has returned very quickly this Fall to the Arctic. Half of North America is under snow and ice and Winter hasn’t even started yet!
It’s a power grab by the UN. Even Al Gore has stock in companies that sell carbon offsets. Follow the money and you’ll find the motives. I’m hoping for really cold weather over the next few years so people will wake up before we find ourselves paying taxes to a world government for no reason except to put a world government in power!
Rain! and Global Cooling.
and Mountain snow too! Although I may not have time to visit the mountain snow anytime soon :-) Here’s a shot of my hummingbird feeder from this morning. I get a lot of hummingbird traffic. Rain or Shine!
This weather pattern is a bit odd for a La Nina year. Usually when a La Nina forms in the Pacific the Desert Southwest enjoys a warm dry Winter. Same for Southern California all the way to Texas. So far this year, not so much. It has been warm at times, but also very rainy here in Arizona. West Texas had snow for Thanksgiving, which is pretty rare! San Diego is getting soaked from this storm, and boy do they need the rain even if mudslides come with the territory. This is on the heels of an unusual El Nino year last year. Yes, if Tucson is going to get snow, it’s during El Nino Winters, and there was a 3″ snowfall last year. However, El Nino’s also usually means very wet weather for Southern California. It was quite the opposite last Winter. El Nino’s are almost always very dry for the Pacific Northwest. They had a wet Winter last year. So, what’s up?I have a theory, although I need to research it. Could it be tied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation? Scientists are just now getting a clue about it. As far as I can tell, the pattern of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is for unusually warm water in the Northern Pacific for about 20 – 30 years, and then a sudden shift to unusually cold for 20 -30 years. Since scientists haven’t known about it that long, they don’t have a lot of data on the pattern, but that seems to be it generally this century. So, during “warm” cycles, Alaska is really warm (like the last 25 years). When it’s on the “cold” cycle, Alaska is really cold. Hmmmm. 30 years ago scientists were warning about the cooling of the Planet. For the last 20, they’ve been talking about the Planet warming up. Hmmmm.
Additionally, I wonder if El Nino and La Nina norms are affected by what phase the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in? Maybe I should apply for a grant and get to researching! If I’m right, this global warming nonsense is about to grow cold! Cool with me :-)
